∅ Empty Set Football
Week 9 · 2026 regular season

New York Jets at Kansas City Chiefs

Sun, Nov 8, 10:00 AM PT

Win probability
ESF
(win probability)
NYJ 23%
77% KC
Market
(implied probability, spread, moneyline)
NYJ (22%, +9.5, +340)
(78%, −9.5, −461) KC

Market probability: moneylines with the bookmaker's margin (vig) removed, the median of 9 US books; spread: the most common line. Lines as of Nov 2, 4:46 PM PT (last pull before kickoff). Betting lines

Unit matchups · entering week 9

Where each side has the edge

Each offense against the defense it faces, in CAP yards per attempt. Offense: higher is better. Defense (yards allowed): lower is better.

Pass: NYJ offense vs KC defense
−0.2621st
box score 8.0 · 5th
Edge
KC
−0.1514th
box score 6.6 allowed · 10th
Rush: NYJ offense vs KC defense
0.0016th
box score 4.1 · 19th
Edge
KC
−0.662nd
box score 3.5 allowed · 4th
Pass: KC offense vs NYJ defense
+0.378th
box score 7.7 · 9th
Edge
KC
+0.2621st
box score 7.0 allowed · 14th
Rush: KC offense vs NYJ defense
+0.497th
box score 5.1 · 1st
Edge
KC
−0.0614th
box score 4.0 allowed · 14th

CAP yards per attempt: yards per play relative to what the down, distance, field position and the specific opponent would predict; offense positive is good, defense (allowed) negative is good. Box score: yards per attempt as an official box score counts them, entering week 9.

CAP yards per attempt · 2026

How each matchup got here

Each unit's CAP yards per attempt entering each week. Offense: higher is better. Defense (yards allowed): lower is better. 0 is what the situation and opponent would predict.

NYJ pass offense vs KC pass defense
NYJ pass offense KC pass defense (allowed)
−1.8 −1.5 −1.3 −1.0 −0.8 −0.5 −0.3 0 +0.3 0 = expected wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6wk 7wk 8 NYJ −0.48 KC −0.28 −1.8 −1.5 −1.3 −1.0 −0.8 −0.5 −0.3 0 +0.3 0 = expected wk 1wk 3wk 6wk 8 NYJ −0.48 KC −0.28
KC pass offense vs NYJ pass defense
KC pass offense NYJ pass defense (allowed)
−0.5 −0.3 0 +0.3 +0.5 +0.8 0 = expected wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6wk 7wk 8 KC +0.12 NYJ +0.02 −0.5 −0.3 0 +0.3 +0.5 +0.8 0 = expected wk 1wk 3wk 6wk 8 KC +0.12 NYJ +0.02
NYJ rush offense vs KC rush defense
NYJ rush offense KC rush defense (allowed)
−1.0 −0.8 −0.5 −0.3 0 +0.3 0 = expected wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6wk 7wk 8 NYJ −0.20 KC −0.73 −1.0 −0.8 −0.5 −0.3 0 +0.3 0 = expected wk 1wk 3wk 6wk 8 NYJ −0.20 KC −0.73
KC rush offense vs NYJ rush defense
KC rush offense NYJ rush defense (allowed)
−0.5 −0.3 0 +0.3 +0.5 +0.8 +1.0 0 = expected wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6wk 7wk 8 KC +0.60 NYJ −0.14 −0.5 −0.3 0 +0.3 +0.5 +0.8 +1.0 0 = expected wk 1wk 3wk 6wk 8 KC +0.60 NYJ −0.14
CAP win pct · 2026

How each team got here

CAP win pct entering each week. Higher is better; the league average is 0.50.

−0.25 0.00 0.25 0.50 avg 0.75 1.00 wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6wk 7wk 8 NYJ −0.01 KC 0.67 −0.25 0.00 0.25 0.50 avg 0.75 1.00 wk 1wk 3wk 6wk 8 NYJ −0.01 KC 0.67
2026 results

Results so far

Each team's games before this one, with ESF's pre-game win probability for the team.

NYJ New York Jets

WeekOpponentResultESF win prob
pre-game, this team
1 @ TEN Won 46%
2 vs GB Lost 38%
3 @ DET Lost 27%
4 @ CHI Lost 19%
5 vs CLE Won 37%
6 @ NE Lost 19%
7 vs MIA Lost 51%
8 vs LV Lost 52%

KC Kansas City Chiefs

WeekOpponentResultESF win prob
pre-game, this team
1 vs DEN Won 34%
2 vs IND Won 66%
3 @ MIA Won 54%
4 @ LV Won 61%
6 vs LAC Won 70%
7 @ SEA Lost 42%
8 @ DEN Lost 30%
Week 9

Other games this week

Home team's chance to win before kickoff. Higher means the home team is more likely to win.

Dots: ESF model and market (median of US books, vig removed) home win probability.

Betting lines

How to read this page

CAP win pct. A fading average of game scores with a half-life of 7 of the team's own games. A win scores 1 plus the opponent's win pct; a loss scores the opponent's win pct minus 1. Last season carries in. League average is 0.50; higher is better.

CAP yards per attempt. Yards per play relative to what the down, distance, field position and the specific opponent would predict. Offense: higher is better. Defense (yards allowed): lower is better.

Box score yards per attempt. Yards divided by attempts, counted the way an official box score counts them: rushing includes scrambles and kneel-downs; passing is gross yards per pass attempt, sacks excluded.

ESF win probability. A logistic regression on both teams' pre-game CAP win pct, with an intercept for home field.

Market. The median of the US books' win probabilities after removing the bookmaker's margin (the vig), from The Odds API. The spread is the most common line across books.