∅ Empty Set Football
Week 9 · 2026 regular season

Detroit Lions at Miami Dolphins

Sun, Nov 8, 10:00 AM PT

Win probability
ESF
(win probability)
DET 66%
34% MIA
Market
(implied probability, spread, moneyline)
DET (73%, −7, −320)
(27%, +7, +260) MIA

Market probability: moneylines with the bookmaker's margin (vig) removed, the median of 9 US books; spread: the most common line. Lines as of Nov 2, 4:46 PM PT (last pull before kickoff). Betting lines

Unit matchups · entering week 9

Where each side has the edge

Each offense against the defense it faces, in CAP yards per attempt. Offense: higher is better. Defense (yards allowed): lower is better.

Pass: DET offense vs MIA defense
+1.323rd
box score 7.9 · 7th
Edge
DET
+1.0931st
box score 8.3 allowed · 31st
Rush: DET offense vs MIA defense
+0.614th
box score 4.6 · 10th
Edge
DET
+0.1521st
box score 3.8 allowed · 8th
Pass: MIA offense vs DET defense
−0.1118th
box score 6.9 · 20th
Even
+0.2220th
box score 7.3 allowed · 18th
Rush: MIA offense vs DET defense
+0.0815th
box score 4.4 · 11th
Edge
MIA
+0.1219th
box score 4.1 allowed · 17th

CAP yards per attempt: yards per play relative to what the down, distance, field position and the specific opponent would predict; offense positive is good, defense (allowed) negative is good. Box score: yards per attempt as an official box score counts them, entering week 9.

CAP yards per attempt · 2026

How each matchup got here

Each unit's CAP yards per attempt entering each week. Offense: higher is better. Defense (yards allowed): lower is better. 0 is what the situation and opponent would predict.

DET pass offense vs MIA pass defense
DET pass offense MIA pass defense (allowed)
−0.3 0 +0.3 +0.5 +0.8 +1.0 +1.3 +1.5 0 = expected wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6wk 7wk 8 DET +1.32 MIA +1.06 −0.3 0 +0.3 +0.5 +0.8 +1.0 +1.3 +1.5 0 = expected wk 1wk 3wk 6wk 8 DET +1.32 MIA +1.06
MIA pass offense vs DET pass defense
MIA pass offense DET pass defense (allowed)
−0.5 −0.3 0 +0.3 +0.5 0 = expected wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6wk 7wk 8 MIA −0.14 DET +0.15 −0.5 −0.3 0 +0.3 +0.5 0 = expected wk 1wk 3wk 6wk 8 MIA −0.14 DET +0.15
DET rush offense vs MIA rush defense
DET rush offense MIA rush defense (allowed)
−0.3 0 +0.3 +0.5 +0.8 0 = expected wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6wk 7wk 8 DET +0.36 MIA +0.16 −0.3 0 +0.3 +0.5 +0.8 0 = expected wk 1wk 3wk 6wk 8 DET +0.36 MIA +0.16
MIA rush offense vs DET rush defense
MIA rush offense DET rush defense (allowed)
−0.3 0 +0.3 +0.5 +0.8 0 = expected wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6wk 7wk 8 MIA +0.20 DET +0.17 −0.3 0 +0.3 +0.5 +0.8 0 = expected wk 1wk 3wk 6wk 8 MIA +0.20 DET +0.17
CAP win pct · 2026

How each team got here

CAP win pct entering each week. Higher is better; the league average is 0.50.

0.00 0.25 0.50 avg 0.75 1.00 wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6wk 7wk 8 DET 0.65 MIA 0.23 0.00 0.25 0.50 avg 0.75 1.00 wk 1wk 3wk 6wk 8 DET 0.65 MIA 0.23
2026 results

Results so far

Each team's games before this one, with ESF's pre-game win probability for the team.

DET Detroit Lions

WeekOpponentResultESF win prob
pre-game, this team
1 vs NO Won 61%
2 @ BUF Lost 31%
3 vs NYJ Won 73%
4 @ CAR Lost 55%
5 @ ARI Won 66%
7 vs GB Won 50%
8 vs MIN Won 44%

MIA Miami Dolphins

WeekOpponentResultESF win prob
pre-game, this team
1 @ LV Lost 72%
2 @ SF Lost 23%
3 vs KC Lost 46%
4 @ MIN Lost 22%
5 vs CIN Lost 46%
7 @ NYJ Won 49%
8 vs NE Lost 36%
Week 9

Other games this week

Home team's chance to win before kickoff. Higher means the home team is more likely to win.

Dots: ESF model and market (median of US books, vig removed) home win probability.

Betting lines

How to read this page

CAP win pct. A fading average of game scores with a half-life of 7 of the team's own games. A win scores 1 plus the opponent's win pct; a loss scores the opponent's win pct minus 1. Last season carries in. League average is 0.50; higher is better.

CAP yards per attempt. Yards per play relative to what the down, distance, field position and the specific opponent would predict. Offense: higher is better. Defense (yards allowed): lower is better.

Box score yards per attempt. Yards divided by attempts, counted the way an official box score counts them: rushing includes scrambles and kneel-downs; passing is gross yards per pass attempt, sacks excluded.

ESF win probability. A logistic regression on both teams' pre-game CAP win pct, with an intercept for home field.

Market. The median of the US books' win probabilities after removing the bookmaker's margin (the vig), from The Odds API. The spread is the most common line across books.