∅ Empty Set Football
Week 9 · 2026 regular season

New York Giants at Philadelphia Eagles

Sun, Nov 8, 10:00 AM PT

Win probability
ESF
(win probability)
NYG 44%
56% PHI
Market
(implied probability, spread, moneyline)
NYG (60%, −3, −165)
(40%, +3, +142) PHI

Market probability: moneylines with the bookmaker's margin (vig) removed, the median of 8 US books; spread: the most common line. Lines as of Nov 2, 4:46 PM PT (last pull before kickoff). Betting lines

Unit matchups · entering week 9

Where each side has the edge

Each offense against the defense it faces, in CAP yards per attempt. Offense: higher is better. Defense (yards allowed): lower is better.

Pass: NYG offense vs PHI defense
−0.3722nd
box score 7.1 · 18th
Edge
PHI
−0.556th
box score 7.2 allowed · 16th
Rush: NYG offense vs PHI defense
−0.1824th
box score 4.1 · 20th
Edge
PHI
−0.0115th
box score 4.3 allowed · 20th
Pass: PHI offense vs NYG defense
−1.3932nd
box score 5.8 · 29th
Edge
NYG
−0.2213th
box score 6.1 allowed · 2nd
Rush: PHI offense vs NYG defense
−0.3825th
box score 3.8 · 27th
Edge
PHI
+0.6630th
box score 4.8 allowed · 27th

CAP yards per attempt: yards per play relative to what the down, distance, field position and the specific opponent would predict; offense positive is good, defense (allowed) negative is good. Box score: yards per attempt as an official box score counts them, entering week 9.

CAP yards per attempt · 2026

How each matchup got here

Each unit's CAP yards per attempt entering each week. Offense: higher is better. Defense (yards allowed): lower is better. 0 is what the situation and opponent would predict.

NYG pass offense vs PHI pass defense
NYG pass offense PHI pass defense (allowed)
−1.3 −1.0 −0.8 −0.5 −0.3 0 +0.3 0 = expected wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6wk 7wk 8 NYG −0.37 PHI −0.63 −1.3 −1.0 −0.8 −0.5 −0.3 0 +0.3 0 = expected wk 1wk 3wk 6wk 8 NYG −0.37 PHI −0.63
PHI pass offense vs NYG pass defense
PHI pass offense NYG pass defense (allowed)
−1.5 −1.3 −1.0 −0.8 −0.5 −0.3 0 +0.3 +0.5 +0.8 0 = expected wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6wk 7wk 8 PHI −1.31 NYG −0.22 −1.5 −1.3 −1.0 −0.8 −0.5 −0.3 0 +0.3 +0.5 +0.8 0 = expected wk 1wk 3wk 6wk 8 PHI −1.31 NYG −0.22
NYG rush offense vs PHI rush defense
NYG rush offense PHI rush defense (allowed)
−0.8 −0.5 −0.3 0 +0.3 0 = expected wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6wk 7wk 8 NYG −0.18 PHI −0.08 −0.8 −0.5 −0.3 0 +0.3 0 = expected wk 1wk 3wk 6wk 8 NYG −0.18 PHI −0.08
PHI rush offense vs NYG rush defense
PHI rush offense NYG rush defense (allowed)
−0.5 −0.3 0 +0.3 +0.5 +0.8 +1.0 0 = expected wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6wk 7wk 8 PHI −0.23 NYG +0.66 −0.5 −0.3 0 +0.3 +0.5 +0.8 +1.0 0 = expected wk 1wk 3wk 6wk 8 PHI −0.23 NYG +0.66
CAP win pct · 2026

How each team got here

CAP win pct entering each week. Higher is better; the league average is 0.50.

−0.25 0.00 0.25 0.50 avg 0.75 1.00 1.25 wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6wk 7wk 8 NYG 0.30 PHI 0.42 −0.25 0.00 0.25 0.50 avg 0.75 1.00 1.25 wk 1wk 3wk 6wk 8 NYG 0.30 PHI 0.42
2026 results

Results so far

Each team's games before this one, with ESF's pre-game win probability for the team.

NYG New York Giants

WeekOpponentResultESF win prob
pre-game, this team
1 vs DAL Won 35%
2 @ LA Lost 24%
3 vs TEN Won 59%
4 vs ARI Won 60%
5 @ WAS Tie 51%
6 vs NO Lost 56%
7 @ HOU Won 27%

PHI Philadelphia Eagles

WeekOpponentResultESF win prob
pre-game, this team
1 vs WAS Won 82%
2 @ TEN Won 80%
3 @ CHI Lost 53%
4 vs LA Lost 65%
5 @ JAX Lost 34%
6 vs CAR Lost 64%
7 vs DAL Lost 65%
8 @ WAS Lost 57%
Week 9

Other games this week

Home team's chance to win before kickoff. Higher means the home team is more likely to win.

Dots: ESF model and market (median of US books, vig removed) home win probability.

Betting lines

How to read this page

CAP win pct. A fading average of game scores with a half-life of 7 of the team's own games. A win scores 1 plus the opponent's win pct; a loss scores the opponent's win pct minus 1. Last season carries in. League average is 0.50; higher is better.

CAP yards per attempt. Yards per play relative to what the down, distance, field position and the specific opponent would predict. Offense: higher is better. Defense (yards allowed): lower is better.

Box score yards per attempt. Yards divided by attempts, counted the way an official box score counts them: rushing includes scrambles and kneel-downs; passing is gross yards per pass attempt, sacks excluded.

ESF win probability. A logistic regression on both teams' pre-game CAP win pct, with an intercept for home field.

Market. The median of the US books' win probabilities after removing the bookmaker's margin (the vig), from The Odds API. The spread is the most common line across books.