∅ Empty Set Football
Week 9 · 2026 regular season

Los Angeles Rams at Washington Commanders

Sun, Nov 8, 10:00 AM PT

Win probability
ESF
(win probability)
LA 60%
40% WAS
Market
(implied probability, spread, moneyline)
LA (69%, −5.5, −250)
(31%, +5.5, +207) WAS

Market probability: moneylines with the bookmaker's margin (vig) removed, the median of 8 US books; spread: the most common line. Lines as of Nov 2, 4:46 PM PT (last pull before kickoff). Betting lines

Unit matchups · entering week 9

Where each side has the edge

Each offense against the defense it faces, in CAP yards per attempt. Offense: higher is better. Defense (yards allowed): lower is better.

Pass: LA offense vs WAS defense
+0.517th
box score 7.1 · 19th
Edge
LA
+0.3923rd
box score 7.2 allowed · 17th
Rush: LA offense vs WAS defense
+0.672nd
box score 4.7 · 5th
Edge
LA
+0.1118th
box score 3.9 allowed · 12th
Pass: WAS offense vs LA defense
+0.0315th
box score 6.5 · 24th
Edge
LA
−0.497th
box score 6.2 allowed · 5th
Rush: WAS offense vs LA defense
−0.0117th
box score 4.6 · 7th
Edge
LA
−0.3110th
box score 4.0 allowed · 15th

CAP yards per attempt: yards per play relative to what the down, distance, field position and the specific opponent would predict; offense positive is good, defense (allowed) negative is good. Box score: yards per attempt as an official box score counts them, entering week 9.

CAP yards per attempt · 2026

How each matchup got here

Each unit's CAP yards per attempt entering each week. Offense: higher is better. Defense (yards allowed): lower is better. 0 is what the situation and opponent would predict.

LA pass offense vs WAS pass defense
LA pass offense WAS pass defense (allowed)
−0.3 0 +0.3 +0.5 +0.8 +1.0 +1.3 +1.5 0 = expected wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6wk 7wk 8 LA +0.62 WAS +0.36 −0.3 0 +0.3 +0.5 +0.8 +1.0 +1.3 +1.5 0 = expected wk 1wk 3wk 6wk 8 LA +0.62 WAS +0.36
WAS pass offense vs LA pass defense
WAS pass offense LA pass defense (allowed)
−1.3 −1.0 −0.8 −0.5 −0.3 0 +0.3 +0.5 0 = expected wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6wk 7wk 8 WAS −0.07 LA −0.63 −1.3 −1.0 −0.8 −0.5 −0.3 0 +0.3 +0.5 0 = expected wk 1wk 3wk 6wk 8 WAS −0.07 LA −0.63
LA rush offense vs WAS rush defense
LA rush offense WAS rush defense (allowed)
−0.3 0 +0.3 +0.5 +0.8 +1.0 +1.3 0 = expected wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6wk 7wk 8 LA +0.72 WAS +0.24 −0.3 0 +0.3 +0.5 +0.8 +1.0 +1.3 0 = expected wk 1wk 3wk 6wk 8 LA +0.72 WAS +0.24
WAS rush offense vs LA rush defense
WAS rush offense LA rush defense (allowed)
−0.5 −0.3 0 +0.3 +0.5 0 = expected wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6wk 7wk 8 WAS −0.06 LA −0.19 −0.5 −0.3 0 +0.3 +0.5 0 = expected wk 1wk 3wk 6wk 8 WAS −0.06 LA −0.19
CAP win pct · 2026

How each team got here

CAP win pct entering each week. Higher is better; the league average is 0.50.

−0.25 0.00 0.25 0.50 avg 0.75 1.00 wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6wk 7wk 8 LA 0.57 WAS 0.10 −0.25 0.00 0.25 0.50 avg 0.75 1.00 wk 1wk 3wk 6wk 8 LA 0.57 WAS 0.10
2026 results

Results so far

Each team's games before this one, with ESF's pre-game win probability for the team.

LA Los Angeles Rams

WeekOpponentResultESF win prob
pre-game, this team
1 vs SF Lost 54%
2 vs NYG Won 76%
3 @ DEN Lost 35%
4 @ PHI Won 35%
5 vs BUF Lost 51%
6 vs ARI Lost 79%
7 @ LV Won 61%
8 vs LAC Won 67%

WAS Washington Commanders

WeekOpponentResultESF win prob
pre-game, this team
1 @ PHI Lost 18%
2 @ DAL Lost 34%
3 vs SEA Won 19%
4 vs IND Lost 51%
5 vs NYG Tie 49%
6 @ SF Lost 14%
8 vs PHI Won 43%
Week 9

Other games this week

Home team's chance to win before kickoff. Higher means the home team is more likely to win.

Dots: ESF model and market (median of US books, vig removed) home win probability.

Betting lines

How to read this page

CAP win pct. A fading average of game scores with a half-life of 7 of the team's own games. A win scores 1 plus the opponent's win pct; a loss scores the opponent's win pct minus 1. Last season carries in. League average is 0.50; higher is better.

CAP yards per attempt. Yards per play relative to what the down, distance, field position and the specific opponent would predict. Offense: higher is better. Defense (yards allowed): lower is better.

Box score yards per attempt. Yards divided by attempts, counted the way an official box score counts them: rushing includes scrambles and kneel-downs; passing is gross yards per pass attempt, sacks excluded.

ESF win probability. A logistic regression on both teams' pre-game CAP win pct, with an intercept for home field.

Market. The median of the US books' win probabilities after removing the bookmaker's margin (the vig), from The Odds API. The spread is the most common line across books.