∅ Empty Set Football
Week 9 · 2026 regular season

Dallas Cowboys at Indianapolis Colts

Sun, Nov 8, 10:00 AM PT

Win probability
ESF
(win probability)
DAL 52%
48% IND
Market
(implied probability, spread, moneyline)
DAL (69%, −6, −250)
(31%, +6, +210) IND

Market probability: moneylines with the bookmaker's margin (vig) removed, the median of 9 US books; spread: the most common line. Lines as of Nov 2, 4:46 PM PT (last pull before kickoff). Betting lines

Unit matchups · entering week 9

Where each side has the edge

Each offense against the defense it faces, in CAP yards per attempt. Offense: higher is better. Defense (yards allowed): lower is better.

Pass: DAL offense vs IND defense
+0.1014th
box score 6.8 · 21st
Edge
DAL
+0.7928th
box score 7.9 allowed · 27th
Rush: DAL offense vs IND defense
−0.0318th
box score 3.8 · 25th
Edge
DAL
+0.1822nd
box score 4.9 allowed · 30th
Pass: IND offense vs DAL defense
−1.0130th
box score 5.7 · 31st
Even
+1.0430th
box score 7.5 allowed · 22nd
Rush: IND offense vs DAL defense
+0.506th
box score 4.1 · 17th
Edge
IND
+0.9232nd
box score 5.0 allowed · 31st

CAP yards per attempt: yards per play relative to what the down, distance, field position and the specific opponent would predict; offense positive is good, defense (allowed) negative is good. Box score: yards per attempt as an official box score counts them, entering week 9.

CAP yards per attempt · 2026

How each matchup got here

Each unit's CAP yards per attempt entering each week. Offense: higher is better. Defense (yards allowed): lower is better. 0 is what the situation and opponent would predict.

DAL pass offense vs IND pass defense
DAL pass offense IND pass defense (allowed)
−0.3 0 +0.3 +0.5 +0.8 +1.0 +1.3 0 = expected wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6wk 7wk 8 DAL +0.20 IND +0.60 −0.3 0 +0.3 +0.5 +0.8 +1.0 +1.3 0 = expected wk 1wk 3wk 6wk 8 DAL +0.20 IND +0.60
IND pass offense vs DAL pass defense
IND pass offense DAL pass defense (allowed)
−1.0 −0.5 0 +0.5 +1.0 +1.5 +2.0 0 = expected wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6wk 7wk 8 IND −0.82 DAL +1.05 −1.0 −0.5 0 +0.5 +1.0 +1.5 +2.0 0 = expected wk 1wk 3wk 6wk 8 IND −0.82 DAL +1.05
DAL rush offense vs IND rush defense
DAL rush offense IND rush defense (allowed)
−0.5 −0.3 0 +0.3 +0.5 0 = expected wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6wk 7wk 8 DAL +0.28 IND −0.01 −0.5 −0.3 0 +0.3 +0.5 0 = expected wk 1wk 3wk 6wk 8 DAL +0.28 IND −0.01
IND rush offense vs DAL rush defense
IND rush offense DAL rush defense (allowed)
−0.3 0 +0.3 +0.5 +0.8 0 = expected wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6wk 7wk 8 IND +0.47 DAL +0.57 −0.3 0 +0.3 +0.5 +0.8 0 = expected wk 1wk 3wk 6wk 8 IND +0.47 DAL +0.57
CAP win pct · 2026

How each team got here

CAP win pct entering each week. Higher is better; the league average is 0.50.

0.00 0.25 0.50 avg 0.75 wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6wk 7wk 8 DAL 0.40 IND 0.15 0.00 0.25 0.50 avg 0.75 wk 1wk 3wk 6wk 8 DAL 0.40 IND 0.15
2026 results

Results so far

Each team's games before this one, with ESF's pre-game win probability for the team.

DAL Dallas Cowboys

WeekOpponentResultESF win prob
pre-game, this team
1 @ NYG Lost 65%
2 vs WAS Won 66%
3 vs BAL Lost 50%
4 @ HOU Won 35%
5 vs TB Lost 72%
6 @ GB Lost 32%
7 @ PHI Won 35%
8 vs ARI Lost 68%

IND Indianapolis Colts

WeekOpponentResultESF win prob
pre-game, this team
1 vs BAL Lost 41%
2 @ KC Lost 34%
3 vs HOU Won 34%
4 @ WAS Won 49%
5 @ PIT Lost 37%
6 vs TEN Lost 72%
7 @ MIN Lost 18%
8 @ JAX Lost 21%
Week 9

Other games this week

Home team's chance to win before kickoff. Higher means the home team is more likely to win.

Dots: ESF model and market (median of US books, vig removed) home win probability.

Betting lines

How to read this page

CAP win pct. A fading average of game scores with a half-life of 7 of the team's own games. A win scores 1 plus the opponent's win pct; a loss scores the opponent's win pct minus 1. Last season carries in. League average is 0.50; higher is better.

CAP yards per attempt. Yards per play relative to what the down, distance, field position and the specific opponent would predict. Offense: higher is better. Defense (yards allowed): lower is better.

Box score yards per attempt. Yards divided by attempts, counted the way an official box score counts them: rushing includes scrambles and kneel-downs; passing is gross yards per pass attempt, sacks excluded.

ESF win probability. A logistic regression on both teams' pre-game CAP win pct, with an intercept for home field.

Market. The median of the US books' win probabilities after removing the bookmaker's margin (the vig), from The Odds API. The spread is the most common line across books.