∅ Empty Set Football
Week 9 · 2026 regular season

Houston Texans at Los Angeles Chargers

Sun, Nov 8, 1:05 PM PT

Win probability
ESF
(win probability)
HOU 57%
43% LAC
Market
(implied probability, spread, moneyline)
HOU (66%, −5, −218)
(34%, +5, +180) LAC

Market probability: moneylines with the bookmaker's margin (vig) removed, the median of 8 US books; spread: the most common line. Lines as of Nov 2, 4:46 PM PT (last pull before kickoff). Betting lines

Unit matchups · entering week 9

Where each side has the edge

Each offense against the defense it faces, in CAP yards per attempt. Offense: higher is better. Defense (yards allowed): lower is better.

Pass: HOU offense vs LAC defense
−0.0716th
box score 7.5 · 11th
Even
−0.0817th
box score 7.4 allowed · 21st
Rush: HOU offense vs LAC defense
−0.6730th
box score 3.6 · 29th
Edge
LAC
+0.0816th
box score 4.1 allowed · 16th
Pass: LAC offense vs HOU defense
−0.0917th
box score 6.6 · 23rd
Edge
HOU
−0.3210th
box score 7.5 allowed · 23rd
Rush: LAC offense vs HOU defense
−0.4727th
box score 4.0 · 21st
Edge
HOU
−0.407th
box score 3.8 allowed · 9th

CAP yards per attempt: yards per play relative to what the down, distance, field position and the specific opponent would predict; offense positive is good, defense (allowed) negative is good. Box score: yards per attempt as an official box score counts them, entering week 9.

CAP yards per attempt · 2026

How each matchup got here

Each unit's CAP yards per attempt entering each week. Offense: higher is better. Defense (yards allowed): lower is better. 0 is what the situation and opponent would predict.

HOU pass offense vs LAC pass defense
HOU pass offense LAC pass defense (allowed)
−0.8 −0.5 −0.3 0 +0.3 0 = expected wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6wk 7wk 8 HOU −0.07 LAC +0.04 −0.8 −0.5 −0.3 0 +0.3 0 = expected wk 1wk 3wk 6wk 8 HOU −0.07 LAC +0.04
LAC pass offense vs HOU pass defense
LAC pass offense HOU pass defense (allowed)
−1.0 −0.8 −0.5 −0.3 0 +0.3 +0.5 0 = expected wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6wk 7wk 8 LAC −0.20 HOU −0.32 −1.0 −0.8 −0.5 −0.3 0 +0.3 +0.5 0 = expected wk 1wk 3wk 6wk 8 LAC −0.20 HOU −0.32
HOU rush offense vs LAC rush defense
HOU rush offense LAC rush defense (allowed)
−1.0 −0.8 −0.5 −0.3 0 +0.3 0 = expected wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6wk 7wk 8 HOU −0.67 LAC +0.13 −1.0 −0.8 −0.5 −0.3 0 +0.3 0 = expected wk 1wk 3wk 6wk 8 HOU −0.67 LAC +0.13
LAC rush offense vs HOU rush defense
LAC rush offense HOU rush defense (allowed)
−1.3 −1.0 −0.8 −0.5 −0.3 0 +0.3 0 = expected wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6wk 7wk 8 LAC −0.33 HOU −0.40 −1.3 −1.0 −0.8 −0.5 −0.3 0 +0.3 0 = expected wk 1wk 3wk 6wk 8 LAC −0.33 HOU −0.40
CAP win pct · 2026

How each team got here

CAP win pct entering each week. Higher is better; the league average is 0.50.

0.00 0.25 0.50 avg 0.75 1.00 1.25 wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6wk 7wk 8 HOU 0.54 LAC 0.27 0.00 0.25 0.50 avg 0.75 1.00 1.25 wk 1wk 3wk 6wk 8 HOU 0.54 LAC 0.27
2026 results

Results so far

Each team's games before this one, with ESF's pre-game win probability for the team.

HOU Houston Texans

WeekOpponentResultESF win prob
pre-game, this team
1 vs BUF Lost 62%
2 vs CIN Lost 70%
3 @ IND Lost 66%
4 vs DAL Lost 65%
5 @ TEN Won 70%
6 @ JAX Won 27%
7 vs NYG Lost 73%

LAC Los Angeles Chargers

WeekOpponentResultESF win prob
pre-game, this team
1 vs ARI Lost 84%
2 vs LV Lost 79%
3 @ BUF Lost 26%
4 @ SEA Lost 26%
5 vs DEN Lost 39%
6 @ KC Lost 30%
8 @ LA Lost 33%
Week 9

Other games this week

Home team's chance to win before kickoff. Higher means the home team is more likely to win.

Dots: ESF model and market (median of US books, vig removed) home win probability.

Betting lines

How to read this page

CAP win pct. A fading average of game scores with a half-life of 7 of the team's own games. A win scores 1 plus the opponent's win pct; a loss scores the opponent's win pct minus 1. Last season carries in. League average is 0.50; higher is better.

CAP yards per attempt. Yards per play relative to what the down, distance, field position and the specific opponent would predict. Offense: higher is better. Defense (yards allowed): lower is better.

Box score yards per attempt. Yards divided by attempts, counted the way an official box score counts them: rushing includes scrambles and kneel-downs; passing is gross yards per pass attempt, sacks excluded.

ESF win probability. A logistic regression on both teams' pre-game CAP win pct, with an intercept for home field.

Market. The median of the US books' win probabilities after removing the bookmaker's margin (the vig), from The Odds API. The spread is the most common line across books.