∅ Empty Set Football
Week 9 · 2026 regular season

Cleveland Browns at New Orleans Saints

Sun, Nov 8, 10:00 AM PT

Win probability
ESF
(win probability)
CLE 51%
49% NO
Market
(implied probability, spread, moneyline)
CLE (43%, +2.5, +125)
(57%, −2.5, −145) NO

Market probability: moneylines with the bookmaker's margin (vig) removed, the median of 9 US books; spread: the most common line. Lines as of Nov 2, 4:46 PM PT (last pull before kickoff). Betting lines

Unit matchups · entering week 9

Where each side has the edge

Each offense against the defense it faces, in CAP yards per attempt. Offense: higher is better. Defense (yards allowed): lower is better.

Pass: CLE offense vs NO defense
−0.7628th
box score 7.2 · 16th
Edge
NO
+0.6325th
box score 7.6 allowed · 25th
Rush: CLE offense vs NO defense
−0.5928th
box score 3.9 · 23rd
Edge
NO
+0.2724th
box score 4.8 allowed · 26th
Pass: NO offense vs CLE defense
−0.5224th
box score 6.3 · 26th
Edge
CLE
−0.339th
box score 6.6 allowed · 11th
Rush: NO offense vs CLE defense
−0.9632nd
box score 3.5 · 30th
Edge
CLE
+0.3527th
box score 4.7 allowed · 25th

CAP yards per attempt: yards per play relative to what the down, distance, field position and the specific opponent would predict; offense positive is good, defense (allowed) negative is good. Box score: yards per attempt as an official box score counts them, entering week 9.

CAP yards per attempt · 2026

How each matchup got here

Each unit's CAP yards per attempt entering each week. Offense: higher is better. Defense (yards allowed): lower is better. 0 is what the situation and opponent would predict.

CLE pass offense vs NO pass defense
CLE pass offense NO pass defense (allowed)
−2.0 −1.5 −1.0 −0.5 0 +0.5 +1.0 0 = expected wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6wk 7wk 8 CLE −1.01 NO +0.63 −2.0 −1.5 −1.0 −0.5 0 +0.5 +1.0 0 = expected wk 1wk 3wk 6wk 8 CLE −1.01 NO +0.63
NO pass offense vs CLE pass defense
NO pass offense CLE pass defense (allowed)
−0.8 −0.5 −0.3 0 +0.3 0 = expected wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6wk 7wk 8 NO −0.52 CLE −0.48 −0.8 −0.5 −0.3 0 +0.3 0 = expected wk 1wk 3wk 6wk 8 NO −0.52 CLE −0.48
CLE rush offense vs NO rush defense
CLE rush offense NO rush defense (allowed)
−1.3 −1.0 −0.8 −0.5 −0.3 0 +0.3 +0.5 0 = expected wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6wk 7wk 8 CLE −0.58 NO +0.27 −1.3 −1.0 −0.8 −0.5 −0.3 0 +0.3 +0.5 0 = expected wk 1wk 3wk 6wk 8 CLE −0.58 NO +0.27
NO rush offense vs CLE rush defense
NO rush offense CLE rush defense (allowed)
−1.3 −1.0 −0.8 −0.5 −0.3 0 +0.3 +0.5 0 = expected wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6wk 7wk 8 NO −0.96 CLE +0.18 −1.3 −1.0 −0.8 −0.5 −0.3 0 +0.3 +0.5 0 = expected wk 1wk 3wk 6wk 8 NO −0.96 CLE +0.18
CAP win pct · 2026

How each team got here

CAP win pct entering each week. Higher is better; the league average is 0.50.

−0.25 0.00 0.25 0.50 avg 0.75 wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6wk 7wk 8 CLE 0.50 NO 0.26 −0.25 0.00 0.25 0.50 avg 0.75 wk 1wk 3wk 6wk 8 CLE 0.50 NO 0.26
2026 results

Results so far

Each team's games before this one, with ESF's pre-game win probability for the team.

CLE Cleveland Browns

WeekOpponentResultESF win prob
pre-game, this team
1 @ JAX Lost 18%
2 @ TB Won 43%
3 vs CAR Won 46%
4 vs PIT Won 41%
5 @ NYJ Lost 63%
6 vs BAL Won 38%
7 @ TEN Won 64%
8 @ PIT Lost 33%

NO New Orleans Saints

WeekOpponentResultESF win prob
pre-game, this team
1 @ DET Lost 39%
2 @ BAL Won 29%
3 vs LV Lost 68%
4 vs ATL Lost 53%
5 vs MIN Lost 31%
6 @ NYG Won 44%
7 vs PIT Lost 42%
Week 9

Other games this week

Home team's chance to win before kickoff. Higher means the home team is more likely to win.

Dots: ESF model and market (median of US books, vig removed) home win probability.

Betting lines

How to read this page

CAP win pct. A fading average of game scores with a half-life of 7 of the team's own games. A win scores 1 plus the opponent's win pct; a loss scores the opponent's win pct minus 1. Last season carries in. League average is 0.50; higher is better.

CAP yards per attempt. Yards per play relative to what the down, distance, field position and the specific opponent would predict. Offense: higher is better. Defense (yards allowed): lower is better.

Box score yards per attempt. Yards divided by attempts, counted the way an official box score counts them: rushing includes scrambles and kneel-downs; passing is gross yards per pass attempt, sacks excluded.

ESF win probability. A logistic regression on both teams' pre-game CAP win pct, with an intercept for home field.

Market. The median of the US books' win probabilities after removing the bookmaker's margin (the vig), from The Odds API. The spread is the most common line across books.