∅ Empty Set Football
Week 9 · 2026 regular season

Green Bay Packers at New England Patriots

Sun, Nov 8, 1:25 PM PT

Win probability
ESF
(win probability)
GB 38%
62% NE
Market
(implied probability, spread, moneyline)
GB (41%, +3, +130)
(59%, −3, −160) NE

Market probability: moneylines with the bookmaker's margin (vig) removed, the median of 9 US books; spread: the most common line. Lines as of Nov 2, 4:46 PM PT (last pull before kickoff). Betting lines

Unit matchups · entering week 9

Where each side has the edge

Each offense against the defense it faces, in CAP yards per attempt. Offense: higher is better. Defense (yards allowed): lower is better.

Pass: GB offense vs NE defense
+0.2413th
box score 7.2 · 14th
Edge
GB
−0.0916th
box score 7.3 allowed · 19th
Rush: GB offense vs NE defense
−0.6629th
box score 2.9 · 32nd
Edge
NE
−0.358th
box score 3.8 allowed · 10th
Pass: NE offense vs GB defense
+1.401st
box score 8.5 · 2nd
Edge
NE
−0.724th
box score 6.2 allowed · 4th
Rush: NE offense vs GB defense
−0.1723rd
box score 4.1 · 18th
Edge
GB
−0.3011th
box score 3.9 allowed · 13th

CAP yards per attempt: yards per play relative to what the down, distance, field position and the specific opponent would predict; offense positive is good, defense (allowed) negative is good. Box score: yards per attempt as an official box score counts them, entering week 9.

CAP yards per attempt · 2026

How each matchup got here

Each unit's CAP yards per attempt entering each week. Offense: higher is better. Defense (yards allowed): lower is better. 0 is what the situation and opponent would predict.

GB pass offense vs NE pass defense
GB pass offense NE pass defense (allowed)
−1.0 −0.8 −0.5 −0.3 0 +0.3 +0.5 +0.8 +1.0 +1.3 +1.5 0 = expected wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6wk 7wk 8 GB +0.20 NE −0.06 −1.0 −0.8 −0.5 −0.3 0 +0.3 +0.5 +0.8 +1.0 +1.3 +1.5 0 = expected wk 1wk 3wk 6wk 8 GB +0.20 NE −0.06
NE pass offense vs GB pass defense
NE pass offense GB pass defense (allowed)
−1.0 −0.5 0 +0.5 +1.0 +1.5 0 = expected wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6wk 7wk 8 NE +1.36 GB −0.52 −1.0 −0.5 0 +0.5 +1.0 +1.5 0 = expected wk 1wk 3wk 6wk 8 NE +1.36 GB −0.52
GB rush offense vs NE rush defense
GB rush offense NE rush defense (allowed)
−0.8 −0.5 −0.3 0 +0.3 0 = expected wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6wk 7wk 8 GB −0.51 NE −0.21 −0.8 −0.5 −0.3 0 +0.3 0 = expected wk 1wk 3wk 6wk 8 GB −0.51 NE −0.21
NE rush offense vs GB rush defense
NE rush offense GB rush defense (allowed)
−0.8 −0.5 −0.3 0 +0.3 0 = expected wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6wk 7wk 8 NE −0.23 GB −0.30 −0.8 −0.5 −0.3 0 +0.3 0 = expected wk 1wk 3wk 6wk 8 NE −0.23 GB −0.30
CAP win pct · 2026

How each team got here

CAP win pct entering each week. Higher is better; the league average is 0.50.

0.25 0.50 avg 0.75 1.00 wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6wk 7wk 8 GB 0.63 NE 0.77 0.25 0.50 avg 0.75 1.00 wk 1wk 3wk 6wk 8 GB 0.63 NE 0.77
2026 results

Results so far

Each team's games before this one, with ESF's pre-game win probability for the team.

GB Green Bay Packers

WeekOpponentResultESF win prob
pre-game, this team
1 @ MIN Lost 40%
2 @ NYJ Won 62%
3 vs ATL Lost 67%
4 @ TB Won 63%
5 vs CHI Won 48%
6 vs DAL Won 68%
7 @ DET Lost 50%
8 vs CAR Won 64%

NE New England Patriots

WeekOpponentResultESF win prob
pre-game, this team
1 @ SEA Lost 33%
2 vs PIT Won 60%
3 @ JAX Lost 42%
4 @ BUF Won 30%
5 vs LV Won 78%
6 vs NYJ Won 81%
7 @ CHI Lost 47%
8 @ MIA Won 64%
Week 9

Other games this week

Home team's chance to win before kickoff. Higher means the home team is more likely to win.

Dots: ESF model and market (median of US books, vig removed) home win probability.

Betting lines

How to read this page

CAP win pct. A fading average of game scores with a half-life of 7 of the team's own games. A win scores 1 plus the opponent's win pct; a loss scores the opponent's win pct minus 1. Last season carries in. League average is 0.50; higher is better.

CAP yards per attempt. Yards per play relative to what the down, distance, field position and the specific opponent would predict. Offense: higher is better. Defense (yards allowed): lower is better.

Box score yards per attempt. Yards divided by attempts, counted the way an official box score counts them: rushing includes scrambles and kneel-downs; passing is gross yards per pass attempt, sacks excluded.

ESF win probability. A logistic regression on both teams' pre-game CAP win pct, with an intercept for home field.

Market. The median of the US books' win probabilities after removing the bookmaker's margin (the vig), from The Odds API. The spread is the most common line across books.