∅ Empty Set Football
Week 9 · 2026 regular season

Denver Broncos at Carolina Panthers

Sun, Nov 8, 10:00 AM PT

Win probability
ESF
(win probability)
DEN 69%
31% CAR
Market
(implied probability, spread, moneyline)
DEN (58%, −3, −150)
(42%, +3, +129) CAR

Market probability: moneylines with the bookmaker's margin (vig) removed, the median of 8 US books; spread: the most common line. Lines as of Nov 2, 4:46 PM PT (last pull before kickoff). Betting lines

Unit matchups · entering week 9

Where each side has the edge

Each offense against the defense it faces, in CAP yards per attempt. Offense: higher is better. Defense (yards allowed): lower is better.

Pass: DEN offense vs CAR defense
−0.7327th
box score 6.0 · 28th
Edge
CAR
−0.2512th
box score 6.4 allowed · 7th
Rush: DEN offense vs CAR defense
−0.1321st
box score 3.8 · 26th
Edge
DEN
+0.5929th
box score 4.8 allowed · 28th
Pass: CAR offense vs DEN defense
−0.2220th
box score 7.2 · 15th
Edge
DEN
−0.793rd
box score 6.5 allowed · 8th
Rush: CAR offense vs DEN defense
−0.1322nd
box score 4.2 · 14th
Edge
DEN
−0.1413th
box score 4.5 allowed · 23rd

CAP yards per attempt: yards per play relative to what the down, distance, field position and the specific opponent would predict; offense positive is good, defense (allowed) negative is good. Box score: yards per attempt as an official box score counts them, entering week 9.

CAP yards per attempt · 2026

How each matchup got here

Each unit's CAP yards per attempt entering each week. Offense: higher is better. Defense (yards allowed): lower is better. 0 is what the situation and opponent would predict.

DEN pass offense vs CAR pass defense
DEN pass offense CAR pass defense (allowed)
−1.0 −0.8 −0.5 −0.3 0 +0.3 +0.5 0 = expected wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6wk 7wk 8 DEN −0.81 CAR −0.25 −1.0 −0.8 −0.5 −0.3 0 +0.3 +0.5 0 = expected wk 1wk 3wk 6wk 8 DEN −0.81 CAR −0.25
CAR pass offense vs DEN pass defense
CAR pass offense DEN pass defense (allowed)
−1.3 −1.0 −0.8 −0.5 −0.3 0 +0.3 0 = expected wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6wk 7wk 8 CAR −0.09 DEN −0.99 −1.3 −1.0 −0.8 −0.5 −0.3 0 +0.3 0 = expected wk 1wk 3wk 6wk 8 CAR −0.09 DEN −0.99
DEN rush offense vs CAR rush defense
DEN rush offense CAR rush defense (allowed)
−0.5 −0.3 0 +0.3 +0.5 +0.8 +1.0 0 = expected wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6wk 7wk 8 DEN −0.19 CAR +0.72 −0.5 −0.3 0 +0.3 +0.5 +0.8 +1.0 0 = expected wk 1wk 3wk 6wk 8 DEN −0.19 CAR +0.72
CAR rush offense vs DEN rush defense
CAR rush offense DEN rush defense (allowed)
−0.5 −0.3 0 +0.3 0 = expected wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6wk 7wk 8 CAR −0.10 DEN −0.04 −0.5 −0.3 0 +0.3 0 = expected wk 1wk 3wk 6wk 8 CAR −0.10 DEN −0.04
CAP win pct · 2026

How each team got here

CAP win pct entering each week. Higher is better; the league average is 0.50.

0.00 0.25 0.50 avg 0.75 1.00 1.25 wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6wk 7wk 8 DEN 1.02 CAR 0.42 0.00 0.25 0.50 avg 0.75 1.00 1.25 wk 1wk 3wk 6wk 8 DEN 1.02 CAR 0.42
2026 results

Results so far

Each team's games before this one, with ESF's pre-game win probability for the team.

DEN Denver Broncos

WeekOpponentResultESF win prob
pre-game, this team
1 @ KC Lost 66%
2 vs JAX Won 56%
3 vs LA Won 65%
4 @ SF Lost 40%
5 @ LAC Won 61%
6 vs SEA Won 60%
7 @ ARI Won 77%
8 vs KC Won 70%

CAR Carolina Panthers

WeekOpponentResultESF win prob
pre-game, this team
1 vs CHI Lost 44%
2 @ ATL Won 42%
3 @ CLE Lost 54%
4 vs DET Won 45%
6 @ PHI Won 36%
7 vs TB Lost 71%
8 @ GB Lost 36%
Week 9

Other games this week

Home team's chance to win before kickoff. Higher means the home team is more likely to win.

Dots: ESF model and market (median of US books, vig removed) home win probability.

Betting lines

How to read this page

CAP win pct. A fading average of game scores with a half-life of 7 of the team's own games. A win scores 1 plus the opponent's win pct; a loss scores the opponent's win pct minus 1. Last season carries in. League average is 0.50; higher is better.

CAP yards per attempt. Yards per play relative to what the down, distance, field position and the specific opponent would predict. Offense: higher is better. Defense (yards allowed): lower is better.

Box score yards per attempt. Yards divided by attempts, counted the way an official box score counts them: rushing includes scrambles and kneel-downs; passing is gross yards per pass attempt, sacks excluded.

ESF win probability. A logistic regression on both teams' pre-game CAP win pct, with an intercept for home field.

Market. The median of the US books' win probabilities after removing the bookmaker's margin (the vig), from The Odds API. The spread is the most common line across books.