∅ Empty Set Football
Week 9 · 2026 regular season

Cincinnati Bengals at Atlanta Falcons

Sun, Nov 8, 6:30 AM PT

Win probability
ESF
(win probability)
CIN 55%
45% ATL
Market
(implied probability, spread, moneyline)
CIN (60%, −3, −165)
(40%, +3, +138) ATL

Market probability: moneylines with the bookmaker's margin (vig) removed, the median of 9 US books; spread: the most common line. Lines as of Nov 2, 4:46 PM PT (last pull before kickoff). Betting lines

Unit matchups · entering week 9

Where each side has the edge

Each offense against the defense it faces, in CAP yards per attempt. Offense: higher is better. Defense (yards allowed): lower is better.

Pass: CIN offense vs ATL defense
+0.3312th
box score 7.9 · 6th
Edge
ATL
−0.428th
box score 6.6 allowed · 12th
Rush: CIN offense vs ATL defense
−0.1020th
box score 3.7 · 28th
Edge
CIN
+0.3326th
box score 4.3 allowed · 21st
Pass: ATL offense vs CIN defense
−0.1919th
box score 7.1 · 17th
Edge
ATL
+0.7127th
box score 7.5 allowed · 24th
Rush: ATL offense vs CIN defense
+0.478th
box score 4.6 · 9th
Edge
ATL
+0.4728th
box score 4.8 allowed · 29th

CAP yards per attempt: yards per play relative to what the down, distance, field position and the specific opponent would predict; offense positive is good, defense (allowed) negative is good. Box score: yards per attempt as an official box score counts them, entering week 9.

CAP yards per attempt · 2026

How each matchup got here

Each unit's CAP yards per attempt entering each week. Offense: higher is better. Defense (yards allowed): lower is better. 0 is what the situation and opponent would predict.

CIN pass offense vs ATL pass defense
CIN pass offense ATL pass defense (allowed)
−0.8 −0.5 −0.3 0 +0.3 +0.5 0 = expected wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6wk 7wk 8 CIN +0.21 ATL −0.38 −0.8 −0.5 −0.3 0 +0.3 +0.5 0 = expected wk 1wk 3wk 6wk 8 CIN +0.21 ATL −0.38
ATL pass offense vs CIN pass defense
ATL pass offense CIN pass defense (allowed)
−0.8 −0.5 −0.3 0 +0.3 +0.5 +0.8 +1.0 0 = expected wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6wk 7wk 8 ATL −0.05 CIN +0.58 −0.8 −0.5 −0.3 0 +0.3 +0.5 +0.8 +1.0 0 = expected wk 1wk 3wk 6wk 8 ATL −0.05 CIN +0.58
CIN rush offense vs ATL rush defense
CIN rush offense ATL rush defense (allowed)
−0.3 0 +0.3 +0.5 0 = expected wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6wk 7wk 8 CIN −0.09 ATL +0.06 −0.3 0 +0.3 +0.5 0 = expected wk 1wk 3wk 6wk 8 CIN −0.09 ATL +0.06
ATL rush offense vs CIN rush defense
ATL rush offense CIN rush defense (allowed)
−0.3 0 +0.3 +0.5 +0.8 +1.0 0 = expected wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6wk 7wk 8 ATL +0.61 CIN +0.35 −0.3 0 +0.3 +0.5 +0.8 +1.0 0 = expected wk 1wk 3wk 6wk 8 ATL +0.61 CIN +0.35
CAP win pct · 2026

How each team got here

CAP win pct entering each week. Higher is better; the league average is 0.50.

0.00 0.25 0.50 avg 0.75 wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6wk 7wk 8 CIN 0.61 ATL 0.48 0.00 0.25 0.50 avg 0.75 wk 1wk 3wk 6wk 8 CIN 0.61 ATL 0.48
2026 results

Results so far

Each team's games before this one, with ESF's pre-game win probability for the team.

CIN Cincinnati Bengals

WeekOpponentResultESF win prob
pre-game, this team
1 vs TB Won 63%
2 @ HOU Won 30%
3 @ PIT Lost 44%
4 vs JAX Lost 43%
5 @ MIA Won 54%
7 @ BAL Won 37%
8 vs TEN Won 79%

ATL Atlanta Falcons

WeekOpponentResultESF win prob
pre-game, this team
1 @ PIT Lost 38%
2 vs CAR Lost 58%
3 @ GB Won 33%
4 @ NO Won 47%
5 vs BAL Lost 48%
6 vs CHI Lost 46%
7 vs SF Won 28%
8 @ TB Lost 55%
Week 9

Other games this week

Home team's chance to win before kickoff. Higher means the home team is more likely to win.

Dots: ESF model and market (median of US books, vig removed) home win probability.

Betting lines

How to read this page

CAP win pct. A fading average of game scores with a half-life of 7 of the team's own games. A win scores 1 plus the opponent's win pct; a loss scores the opponent's win pct minus 1. Last season carries in. League average is 0.50; higher is better.

CAP yards per attempt. Yards per play relative to what the down, distance, field position and the specific opponent would predict. Offense: higher is better. Defense (yards allowed): lower is better.

Box score yards per attempt. Yards divided by attempts, counted the way an official box score counts them: rushing includes scrambles and kneel-downs; passing is gross yards per pass attempt, sacks excluded.

ESF win probability. A logistic regression on both teams' pre-game CAP win pct, with an intercept for home field.

Market. The median of the US books' win probabilities after removing the bookmaker's margin (the vig), from The Odds API. The spread is the most common line across books.