∅ Empty Set Football
Week 9 · 2026 regular season

Buffalo Bills at Minnesota Vikings

Mon, Nov 9, 5:15 PM PT

Win probability
ESF
(win probability)
BUF 47%
53% MIN
Market
(implied probability, spread, moneyline)
BUF (62%, −3.5, −180)
(38%, +3.5, +155) MIN

Market probability: moneylines with the bookmaker's margin (vig) removed, the median of 9 US books; spread: the most common line. Lines as of Nov 2, 4:46 PM PT (last pull before kickoff). Betting lines

Unit matchups · entering week 9

Where each side has the edge

Each offense against the defense it faces, in CAP yards per attempt. Offense: higher is better. Defense (yards allowed): lower is better.

Pass: BUF offense vs MIN defense
+1.352nd
box score 8.7 · 1st
Even
−1.092nd
box score 6.2 allowed · 3rd
Rush: BUF offense vs MIN defense
+0.605th
box score 4.8 · 4th
Edge
BUF
−0.1612th
box score 4.5 allowed · 24th
Pass: MIN offense vs BUF defense
−0.5725th
box score 6.7 · 22nd
Edge
BUF
−0.615th
box score 7.0 allowed · 15th
Rush: MIN offense vs BUF defense
−0.4626th
box score 4.0 · 22nd
Edge
BUF
+0.1117th
box score 3.9 allowed · 11th

CAP yards per attempt: yards per play relative to what the down, distance, field position and the specific opponent would predict; offense positive is good, defense (allowed) negative is good. Box score: yards per attempt as an official box score counts them, entering week 9.

CAP yards per attempt · 2026

How each matchup got here

Each unit's CAP yards per attempt entering each week. Offense: higher is better. Defense (yards allowed): lower is better. 0 is what the situation and opponent would predict.

BUF pass offense vs MIN pass defense
BUF pass offense MIN pass defense (allowed)
−1.5 −1.0 −0.5 0 +0.5 +1.0 +1.5 +2.0 0 = expected wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6wk 7wk 8 BUF +1.40 MIN −1.05 −1.5 −1.0 −0.5 0 +0.5 +1.0 +1.5 +2.0 0 = expected wk 1wk 3wk 6wk 8 BUF +1.40 MIN −1.05
MIN pass offense vs BUF pass defense
MIN pass offense BUF pass defense (allowed)
−1.0 −0.8 −0.5 −0.3 0 +0.3 0 = expected wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6wk 7wk 8 MIN −0.61 BUF −0.29 −1.0 −0.8 −0.5 −0.3 0 +0.3 0 = expected wk 1wk 3wk 6wk 8 MIN −0.61 BUF −0.29
BUF rush offense vs MIN rush defense
BUF rush offense MIN rush defense (allowed)
−1.0 −0.8 −0.5 −0.3 0 +0.3 +0.5 +0.8 +1.0 0 = expected wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6wk 7wk 8 BUF +0.63 MIN −0.44 −1.0 −0.8 −0.5 −0.3 0 +0.3 +0.5 +0.8 +1.0 0 = expected wk 1wk 3wk 6wk 8 BUF +0.63 MIN −0.44
MIN rush offense vs BUF rush defense
MIN rush offense BUF rush defense (allowed)
−0.8 −0.5 −0.3 0 +0.3 +0.5 +0.8 +1.0 0 = expected wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6wk 7wk 8 MIN −0.41 BUF +0.17 −0.8 −0.5 −0.3 0 +0.3 +0.5 +0.8 +1.0 0 = expected wk 1wk 3wk 6wk 8 MIN −0.41 BUF +0.17
CAP win pct · 2026

How each team got here

CAP win pct entering each week. Higher is better; the league average is 0.50.

0.25 0.50 avg 0.75 1.00 1.25 wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6wk 7wk 8 BUF 1.00 MIN 1.01 0.25 0.50 avg 0.75 1.00 1.25 wk 1wk 3wk 6wk 8 BUF 1.00 MIN 1.01
2026 results

Results so far

Each team's games before this one, with ESF's pre-game win probability for the team.

BUF Buffalo Bills

WeekOpponentResultESF win prob
pre-game, this team
1 @ HOU Won 38%
2 vs DET Won 69%
3 vs LAC Won 74%
4 vs NE Lost 70%
5 @ LA Won 49%
6 @ LV Won 74%
8 vs BAL Won 73%

MIN Minnesota Vikings

WeekOpponentResultESF win prob
pre-game, this team
1 vs GB Won 60%
2 @ CHI Won 43%
3 @ TB Won 73%
4 vs MIA Won 78%
5 @ NO Won 69%
7 vs IND Won 82%
8 @ DET Lost 56%
Week 9

Other games this week

Home team's chance to win before kickoff. Higher means the home team is more likely to win.

Dots: ESF model and market (median of US books, vig removed) home win probability.

Betting lines

How to read this page

CAP win pct. A fading average of game scores with a half-life of 7 of the team's own games. A win scores 1 plus the opponent's win pct; a loss scores the opponent's win pct minus 1. Last season carries in. League average is 0.50; higher is better.

CAP yards per attempt. Yards per play relative to what the down, distance, field position and the specific opponent would predict. Offense: higher is better. Defense (yards allowed): lower is better.

Box score yards per attempt. Yards divided by attempts, counted the way an official box score counts them: rushing includes scrambles and kneel-downs; passing is gross yards per pass attempt, sacks excluded.

ESF win probability. A logistic regression on both teams' pre-game CAP win pct, with an intercept for home field.

Market. The median of the US books' win probabilities after removing the bookmaker's margin (the vig), from The Odds API. The spread is the most common line across books.