∅ Empty Set Football
Week 9 · 2026 regular season

Jacksonville Jaguars at Baltimore Ravens

Thu, Nov 5, 5:15 PM PT

Win probability
ESF
(win probability)
JAX 58%
42% BAL
Market
(implied probability, spread, moneyline)
JAX (79%, −9.5, −500)
(21%, +9.5, +360) BAL

Market probability: moneylines with the bookmaker's margin (vig) removed, the median of 9 US books; spread: the most common line. Lines as of Nov 2, 4:46 PM PT (last pull before kickoff). Betting lines

Unit matchups · entering week 9

Where each side has the edge

Each offense against the defense it faces, in CAP yards per attempt. Offense: higher is better. Defense (yards allowed): lower is better.

Pass: JAX offense vs BAL defense
+1.265th
box score 8.4 · 3rd
Edge
JAX
+0.3022nd
box score 7.4 allowed · 20th
Rush: JAX offense vs BAL defense
+0.0912th
box score 4.3 · 13th
Edge
BAL
−0.406th
box score 3.8 allowed · 7th
Pass: BAL offense vs JAX defense
+0.3410th
box score 7.8 · 8th
Edge
BAL
+0.0818th
box score 7.6 allowed · 26th
Rush: BAL offense vs JAX defense
+0.751st
box score 4.6 · 8th
Edge
BAL
−0.544th
box score 3.4 allowed · 1st

CAP yards per attempt: yards per play relative to what the down, distance, field position and the specific opponent would predict; offense positive is good, defense (allowed) negative is good. Box score: yards per attempt as an official box score counts them, entering week 9.

CAP yards per attempt · 2026

How each matchup got here

Each unit's CAP yards per attempt entering each week. Offense: higher is better. Defense (yards allowed): lower is better. 0 is what the situation and opponent would predict.

JAX pass offense vs BAL pass defense
JAX pass offense BAL pass defense (allowed)
−0.3 0 +0.3 +0.5 +0.8 +1.0 +1.3 0 = expected wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6wk 7wk 8 JAX +1.04 BAL +0.32 −0.3 0 +0.3 +0.5 +0.8 +1.0 +1.3 0 = expected wk 1wk 3wk 6wk 8 JAX +1.04 BAL +0.32
BAL pass offense vs JAX pass defense
BAL pass offense JAX pass defense (allowed)
−0.8 −0.5 −0.3 0 +0.3 +0.5 +0.8 +1.0 +1.3 +1.5 0 = expected wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6wk 7wk 8 BAL +0.74 JAX +0.19 −0.8 −0.5 −0.3 0 +0.3 +0.5 +0.8 +1.0 +1.3 +1.5 0 = expected wk 1wk 3wk 6wk 8 BAL +0.74 JAX +0.19
JAX rush offense vs BAL rush defense
JAX rush offense BAL rush defense (allowed)
−0.5 −0.3 0 +0.3 0 = expected wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6wk 7wk 8 JAX −0.08 BAL −0.35 −0.5 −0.3 0 +0.3 0 = expected wk 1wk 3wk 6wk 8 JAX −0.08 BAL −0.35
BAL rush offense vs JAX rush defense
BAL rush offense JAX rush defense (allowed)
−1.0 −0.5 0 +0.5 +1.0 +1.5 +2.0 0 = expected wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6wk 7wk 8 BAL +0.80 JAX −0.58 −1.0 −0.5 0 +0.5 +1.0 +1.5 +2.0 0 = expected wk 1wk 3wk 6wk 8 BAL +0.80 JAX −0.58
CAP win pct · 2026

How each team got here

CAP win pct entering each week. Higher is better; the league average is 0.50.

0.25 0.50 avg 0.75 1.00 1.25 wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6wk 7wk 8 JAX 0.87 BAL 0.57 0.25 0.50 avg 0.75 1.00 1.25 wk 1wk 3wk 6wk 8 JAX 0.87 BAL 0.57
2026 results

Results so far

Each team's games before this one, with ESF's pre-game win probability for the team.

JAX Jacksonville Jaguars

WeekOpponentResultESF win prob
pre-game, this team
1 vs CLE Won 82%
2 @ DEN Lost 44%
3 vs NE Won 58%
4 @ CIN Won 57%
5 vs PHI Won 66%
6 vs HOU Lost 73%
8 vs IND Won 79%

BAL Baltimore Ravens

WeekOpponentResultESF win prob
pre-game, this team
1 @ IND Won 59%
2 vs NO Lost 71%
3 @ DAL Won 50%
4 vs TEN Won 82%
5 @ ATL Won 52%
6 @ CLE Lost 62%
7 vs CIN Lost 63%
8 @ BUF Lost 27%
Week 9

Other games this week

Home team's chance to win before kickoff. Higher means the home team is more likely to win.

Dots: ESF model and market (median of US books, vig removed) home win probability.

Betting lines

How to read this page

CAP win pct. A fading average of game scores with a half-life of 7 of the team's own games. A win scores 1 plus the opponent's win pct; a loss scores the opponent's win pct minus 1. Last season carries in. League average is 0.50; higher is better.

CAP yards per attempt. Yards per play relative to what the down, distance, field position and the specific opponent would predict. Offense: higher is better. Defense (yards allowed): lower is better.

Box score yards per attempt. Yards divided by attempts, counted the way an official box score counts them: rushing includes scrambles and kneel-downs; passing is gross yards per pass attempt, sacks excluded.

ESF win probability. A logistic regression on both teams' pre-game CAP win pct, with an intercept for home field.

Market. The median of the US books' win probabilities after removing the bookmaker's margin (the vig), from The Odds API. The spread is the most common line across books.