∅ Empty Set Football
Week 16 · 2026 regular season

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Atlanta Falcons

Sun, Dec 27, 10:00 AM PT

Win probability
ESF
(win probability)
TB 42%
58% ATL

No betting line yet. Lines appear once books post them.

Unit matchups · entering week 16

Where each side has the edge

Each offense against the defense it faces, in CAP yards per attempt. Offense: higher is better. Defense (yards allowed): lower is better.

Pass: TB offense vs ATL defense
−0.9929th
box score 5.7 · 32nd
Edge
ATL
−0.428th
box score 6.6 allowed · 12th
Rush: TB offense vs ATL defense
+0.3910th
box score 5.1 · 2nd
Edge
TB
+0.3326th
box score 4.3 allowed · 21st
Pass: ATL offense vs TB defense
−0.1919th
box score 7.1 · 17th
Edge
TB
−0.1515th
box score 6.5 allowed · 9th
Rush: ATL offense vs TB defense
+0.478th
box score 4.6 · 9th
Even
−0.329th
box score 3.6 allowed · 5th

CAP yards per attempt: yards per play relative to what the down, distance, field position and the specific opponent would predict; offense positive is good, defense (allowed) negative is good. Box score: yards per attempt as an official box score counts them, entering week 16.

CAP yards per attempt · 2026

How each matchup got here

Each unit's CAP yards per attempt entering each week. Offense: higher is better. Defense (yards allowed): lower is better. 0 is what the situation and opponent would predict.

TB pass offense vs ATL pass defense
TB pass offense ATL pass defense (allowed)
−1.3 −1.0 −0.8 −0.5 −0.3 0 +0.3 0 = expected wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6wk 7wk 8 TB −0.94 ATL −0.38 −1.3 −1.0 −0.8 −0.5 −0.3 0 +0.3 0 = expected wk 1wk 3wk 6wk 8 TB −0.94 ATL −0.38
ATL pass offense vs TB pass defense
ATL pass offense TB pass defense (allowed)
−0.8 −0.5 −0.3 0 +0.3 +0.5 +0.8 0 = expected wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6wk 7wk 8 ATL −0.05 TB −0.03 −0.8 −0.5 −0.3 0 +0.3 +0.5 +0.8 0 = expected wk 1wk 3wk 6wk 8 ATL −0.05 TB −0.03
TB rush offense vs ATL rush defense
TB rush offense ATL rush defense (allowed)
−0.5 −0.3 0 +0.3 +0.5 0 = expected wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6wk 7wk 8 TB +0.15 ATL +0.06 −0.5 −0.3 0 +0.3 +0.5 0 = expected wk 1wk 3wk 6wk 8 TB +0.15 ATL +0.06
ATL rush offense vs TB rush defense
ATL rush offense TB rush defense (allowed)
−0.3 0 +0.3 +0.5 +0.8 +1.0 0 = expected wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6wk 7wk 8 ATL +0.61 TB −0.12 −0.3 0 +0.3 +0.5 +0.8 +1.0 0 = expected wk 1wk 3wk 6wk 8 ATL +0.61 TB −0.12
CAP win pct · 2026

How each team got here

CAP win pct entering each week. Higher is better; the league average is 0.50.

−0.25 0.00 0.25 0.50 avg 0.75 wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6wk 7wk 8 TB 0.21 ATL 0.48 −0.25 0.00 0.25 0.50 avg 0.75 wk 1wk 3wk 6wk 8 TB 0.21 ATL 0.48
2026 results

Results so far

Each team's games before this one, with ESF's pre-game win probability for the team.

TB Tampa Bay Buccaneers

WeekOpponentResultESF win prob
pre-game, this team
1 @ CIN Lost 37%
2 vs CLE Lost 57%
3 vs MIN Lost 27%
4 vs GB Lost 37%
5 @ DAL Won 28%
6 vs PIT Lost 36%
7 @ CAR Won 29%
8 vs ATL Won 45%

ATL Atlanta Falcons

WeekOpponentResultESF win prob
pre-game, this team
1 @ PIT Lost 38%
2 vs CAR Lost 58%
3 @ GB Won 33%
4 @ NO Won 47%
5 vs BAL Lost 48%
6 vs CHI Lost 46%
7 vs SF Won 28%
8 @ TB Lost 55%
Week 16

Other games this week

Home team's chance to win before kickoff. Higher means the home team is more likely to win.

Dots: ESF model home win probability.

How to read this page

CAP win pct. A fading average of game scores with a half-life of 7 of the team's own games. A win scores 1 plus the opponent's win pct; a loss scores the opponent's win pct minus 1. Last season carries in. League average is 0.50; higher is better.

CAP yards per attempt. Yards per play relative to what the down, distance, field position and the specific opponent would predict. Offense: higher is better. Defense (yards allowed): lower is better.

Box score yards per attempt. Yards divided by attempts, counted the way an official box score counts them: rushing includes scrambles and kneel-downs; passing is gross yards per pass attempt, sacks excluded.

ESF win probability. A logistic regression on both teams' pre-game CAP win pct, with an intercept for home field.