∅ Empty Set Football
Week 16 · 2026 regular season

Los Angeles Chargers at Miami Dolphins

Sun, Dec 27, 10:00 AM PT

Win probability
ESF
(win probability)
LAC 46%
54% MIA

No betting line yet. Lines appear once books post them.

Unit matchups · entering week 16

Where each side has the edge

Each offense against the defense it faces, in CAP yards per attempt. Offense: higher is better. Defense (yards allowed): lower is better.

Pass: LAC offense vs MIA defense
−0.0917th
box score 6.6 · 23rd
Edge
LAC
+1.0931st
box score 8.3 allowed · 31st
Rush: LAC offense vs MIA defense
−0.4727th
box score 4.0 · 21st
Edge
MIA
+0.1521st
box score 3.8 allowed · 8th
Pass: MIA offense vs LAC defense
−0.1118th
box score 6.9 · 20th
Even
−0.0817th
box score 7.4 allowed · 21st
Rush: MIA offense vs LAC defense
+0.0815th
box score 4.4 · 11th
Even
+0.0816th
box score 4.1 allowed · 16th

CAP yards per attempt: yards per play relative to what the down, distance, field position and the specific opponent would predict; offense positive is good, defense (allowed) negative is good. Box score: yards per attempt as an official box score counts them, entering week 16.

CAP yards per attempt · 2026

How each matchup got here

Each unit's CAP yards per attempt entering each week. Offense: higher is better. Defense (yards allowed): lower is better. 0 is what the situation and opponent would predict.

LAC pass offense vs MIA pass defense
LAC pass offense MIA pass defense (allowed)
−0.5 −0.3 0 +0.3 +0.5 +0.8 +1.0 +1.3 0 = expected wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6wk 7wk 8 LAC −0.20 MIA +1.06 −0.5 −0.3 0 +0.3 +0.5 +0.8 +1.0 +1.3 0 = expected wk 1wk 3wk 6wk 8 LAC −0.20 MIA +1.06
MIA pass offense vs LAC pass defense
MIA pass offense LAC pass defense (allowed)
−0.5 −0.3 0 +0.3 0 = expected wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6wk 7wk 8 MIA −0.14 LAC +0.04 −0.5 −0.3 0 +0.3 0 = expected wk 1wk 3wk 6wk 8 MIA −0.14 LAC +0.04
LAC rush offense vs MIA rush defense
LAC rush offense MIA rush defense (allowed)
−0.8 −0.5 −0.3 0 +0.3 +0.5 0 = expected wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6wk 7wk 8 LAC −0.33 MIA +0.16 −0.8 −0.5 −0.3 0 +0.3 +0.5 0 = expected wk 1wk 3wk 6wk 8 LAC −0.33 MIA +0.16
MIA rush offense vs LAC rush defense
MIA rush offense LAC rush defense (allowed)
−0.3 0 +0.3 +0.5 +0.8 0 = expected wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6wk 7wk 8 MIA +0.20 LAC +0.13 −0.3 0 +0.3 +0.5 +0.8 0 = expected wk 1wk 3wk 6wk 8 MIA +0.20 LAC +0.13
CAP win pct · 2026

How each team got here

CAP win pct entering each week. Higher is better; the league average is 0.50.

0.00 0.25 0.50 avg 0.75 1.00 wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6wk 7wk 8 LAC 0.27 MIA 0.23 0.00 0.25 0.50 avg 0.75 1.00 wk 1wk 3wk 6wk 8 LAC 0.27 MIA 0.23
2026 results

Results so far

Each team's games before this one, with ESF's pre-game win probability for the team.

LAC Los Angeles Chargers

WeekOpponentResultESF win prob
pre-game, this team
1 vs ARI Lost 84%
2 vs LV Lost 79%
3 @ BUF Lost 26%
4 @ SEA Lost 26%
5 vs DEN Lost 39%
6 @ KC Lost 30%
8 @ LA Lost 33%

MIA Miami Dolphins

WeekOpponentResultESF win prob
pre-game, this team
1 @ LV Lost 72%
2 @ SF Lost 23%
3 vs KC Lost 46%
4 @ MIN Lost 22%
5 vs CIN Lost 46%
7 @ NYJ Won 49%
8 vs NE Lost 36%
Week 16

Other games this week

Home team's chance to win before kickoff. Higher means the home team is more likely to win.

Dots: ESF model home win probability.

How to read this page

CAP win pct. A fading average of game scores with a half-life of 7 of the team's own games. A win scores 1 plus the opponent's win pct; a loss scores the opponent's win pct minus 1. Last season carries in. League average is 0.50; higher is better.

CAP yards per attempt. Yards per play relative to what the down, distance, field position and the specific opponent would predict. Offense: higher is better. Defense (yards allowed): lower is better.

Box score yards per attempt. Yards divided by attempts, counted the way an official box score counts them: rushing includes scrambles and kneel-downs; passing is gross yards per pass attempt, sacks excluded.

ESF win probability. A logistic regression on both teams' pre-game CAP win pct, with an intercept for home field.