∅ Empty Set Football
Week 16 · 2026 regular season

Carolina Panthers at Pittsburgh Steelers

Sun, Dec 27, 10:00 AM PT

Win probability
ESF
(win probability)
CAR 27%
73% PIT

No betting line yet. Lines appear once books post them.

Unit matchups · entering week 16

Where each side has the edge

Each offense against the defense it faces, in CAP yards per attempt. Offense: higher is better. Defense (yards allowed): lower is better.

Pass: CAR offense vs PIT defense
−0.2220th
box score 7.2 · 15th
Even
+0.1519th
box score 6.9 allowed · 13th
Rush: CAR offense vs PIT defense
−0.1322nd
box score 4.2 · 14th
Edge
PIT
−0.563rd
box score 3.6 allowed · 6th
Pass: PIT offense vs CAR defense
−0.4823rd
box score 6.5 · 25th
Edge
CAR
−0.2512th
box score 6.4 allowed · 7th
Rush: PIT offense vs CAR defense
+0.643rd
box score 4.9 · 3rd
Edge
PIT
+0.5929th
box score 4.8 allowed · 28th

CAP yards per attempt: yards per play relative to what the down, distance, field position and the specific opponent would predict; offense positive is good, defense (allowed) negative is good. Box score: yards per attempt as an official box score counts them, entering week 16.

CAP yards per attempt · 2026

How each matchup got here

Each unit's CAP yards per attempt entering each week. Offense: higher is better. Defense (yards allowed): lower is better. 0 is what the situation and opponent would predict.

CAR pass offense vs PIT pass defense
CAR pass offense PIT pass defense (allowed)
−1.0 −0.8 −0.5 −0.3 0 +0.3 +0.5 0 = expected wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6wk 7wk 8 CAR −0.09 PIT −0.03 −1.0 −0.8 −0.5 −0.3 0 +0.3 +0.5 0 = expected wk 1wk 3wk 6wk 8 CAR −0.09 PIT −0.03
PIT pass offense vs CAR pass defense
PIT pass offense CAR pass defense (allowed)
−1.0 −0.8 −0.5 −0.3 0 +0.3 +0.5 0 = expected wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6wk 7wk 8 PIT −0.63 CAR −0.25 −1.0 −0.8 −0.5 −0.3 0 +0.3 +0.5 0 = expected wk 1wk 3wk 6wk 8 PIT −0.63 CAR −0.25
CAR rush offense vs PIT rush defense
CAR rush offense PIT rush defense (allowed)
−0.8 −0.5 −0.3 0 +0.3 0 = expected wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6wk 7wk 8 CAR −0.10 PIT −0.53 −0.8 −0.5 −0.3 0 +0.3 0 = expected wk 1wk 3wk 6wk 8 CAR −0.10 PIT −0.53
PIT rush offense vs CAR rush defense
PIT rush offense CAR rush defense (allowed)
−0.3 0 +0.3 +0.5 +0.8 +1.0 0 = expected wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6wk 7wk 8 PIT +0.43 CAR +0.72 −0.3 0 +0.3 +0.5 +0.8 +1.0 0 = expected wk 1wk 3wk 6wk 8 PIT +0.43 CAR +0.72
CAP win pct · 2026

How each team got here

CAP win pct entering each week. Higher is better; the league average is 0.50.

0.00 0.25 0.50 avg 0.75 1.00 wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6wk 7wk 8 CAR 0.42 PIT 0.76 0.00 0.25 0.50 avg 0.75 1.00 wk 1wk 3wk 6wk 8 CAR 0.42 PIT 0.76
2026 results

Results so far

Each team's games before this one, with ESF's pre-game win probability for the team.

CAR Carolina Panthers

WeekOpponentResultESF win prob
pre-game, this team
1 vs CHI Lost 44%
2 @ ATL Won 42%
3 @ CLE Lost 54%
4 vs DET Won 45%
6 @ PHI Won 36%
7 vs TB Lost 71%
8 @ GB Lost 36%

PIT Pittsburgh Steelers

WeekOpponentResultESF win prob
pre-game, this team
1 vs ATL Won 62%
2 @ NE Lost 40%
3 vs CIN Won 56%
4 @ CLE Lost 59%
5 vs IND Won 63%
6 @ TB Won 64%
7 @ NO Won 58%
8 vs CLE Won 67%
Week 16

Other games this week

Home team's chance to win before kickoff. Higher means the home team is more likely to win.

Dots: ESF model home win probability.

How to read this page

CAP win pct. A fading average of game scores with a half-life of 7 of the team's own games. A win scores 1 plus the opponent's win pct; a loss scores the opponent's win pct minus 1. Last season carries in. League average is 0.50; higher is better.

CAP yards per attempt. Yards per play relative to what the down, distance, field position and the specific opponent would predict. Offense: higher is better. Defense (yards allowed): lower is better.

Box score yards per attempt. Yards divided by attempts, counted the way an official box score counts them: rushing includes scrambles and kneel-downs; passing is gross yards per pass attempt, sacks excluded.

ESF win probability. A logistic regression on both teams' pre-game CAP win pct, with an intercept for home field.