∅ Empty Set Football
Week 16 · 2026 regular season

Jacksonville Jaguars at Dallas Cowboys

Sun, Dec 27, 5:20 PM PT

Win probability
ESF
(win probability)
JAX 66%
34% DAL

No betting line yet. Lines appear once books post them.

Unit matchups · entering week 16

Where each side has the edge

Each offense against the defense it faces, in CAP yards per attempt. Offense: higher is better. Defense (yards allowed): lower is better.

Pass: JAX offense vs DAL defense
+1.265th
box score 8.4 · 3rd
Edge
JAX
+1.0430th
box score 7.5 allowed · 22nd
Rush: JAX offense vs DAL defense
+0.0912th
box score 4.3 · 13th
Edge
JAX
+0.9232nd
box score 5.0 allowed · 31st
Pass: DAL offense vs JAX defense
+0.1014th
box score 6.8 · 21st
Edge
DAL
+0.0818th
box score 7.6 allowed · 26th
Rush: DAL offense vs JAX defense
−0.0318th
box score 3.8 · 25th
Edge
JAX
−0.544th
box score 3.4 allowed · 1st

CAP yards per attempt: yards per play relative to what the down, distance, field position and the specific opponent would predict; offense positive is good, defense (allowed) negative is good. Box score: yards per attempt as an official box score counts them, entering week 16.

CAP yards per attempt · 2026

How each matchup got here

Each unit's CAP yards per attempt entering each week. Offense: higher is better. Defense (yards allowed): lower is better. 0 is what the situation and opponent would predict.

JAX pass offense vs DAL pass defense
JAX pass offense DAL pass defense (allowed)
−0.3 0 +0.3 +0.5 +0.8 +1.0 +1.3 +1.5 +1.8 0 = expected wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6wk 7wk 8 JAX +1.04 DAL +1.05 −0.3 0 +0.3 +0.5 +0.8 +1.0 +1.3 +1.5 +1.8 0 = expected wk 1wk 3wk 6wk 8 JAX +1.04 DAL +1.05
DAL pass offense vs JAX pass defense
DAL pass offense JAX pass defense (allowed)
−0.8 −0.5 −0.3 0 +0.3 +0.5 +0.8 +1.0 0 = expected wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6wk 7wk 8 DAL +0.20 JAX +0.19 −0.8 −0.5 −0.3 0 +0.3 +0.5 +0.8 +1.0 0 = expected wk 1wk 3wk 6wk 8 DAL +0.20 JAX +0.19
JAX rush offense vs DAL rush defense
JAX rush offense DAL rush defense (allowed)
−0.5 −0.3 0 +0.3 +0.5 +0.8 0 = expected wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6wk 7wk 8 JAX −0.08 DAL +0.57 −0.5 −0.3 0 +0.3 +0.5 +0.8 0 = expected wk 1wk 3wk 6wk 8 JAX −0.08 DAL +0.57
DAL rush offense vs JAX rush defense
DAL rush offense JAX rush defense (allowed)
−1.0 −0.8 −0.5 −0.3 0 +0.3 +0.5 0 = expected wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6wk 7wk 8 DAL +0.28 JAX −0.58 −1.0 −0.8 −0.5 −0.3 0 +0.3 +0.5 0 = expected wk 1wk 3wk 6wk 8 DAL +0.28 JAX −0.58
CAP win pct · 2026

How each team got here

CAP win pct entering each week. Higher is better; the league average is 0.50.

0.00 0.25 0.50 avg 0.75 1.00 1.25 wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6wk 7wk 8 JAX 0.87 DAL 0.40 0.00 0.25 0.50 avg 0.75 1.00 1.25 wk 1wk 3wk 6wk 8 JAX 0.87 DAL 0.40
2026 results

Results so far

Each team's games before this one, with ESF's pre-game win probability for the team.

JAX Jacksonville Jaguars

WeekOpponentResultESF win prob
pre-game, this team
1 vs CLE Won 82%
2 @ DEN Lost 44%
3 vs NE Won 58%
4 @ CIN Won 57%
5 vs PHI Won 66%
6 vs HOU Lost 73%
8 vs IND Won 79%

DAL Dallas Cowboys

WeekOpponentResultESF win prob
pre-game, this team
1 @ NYG Lost 65%
2 vs WAS Won 66%
3 vs BAL Lost 50%
4 @ HOU Won 35%
5 vs TB Lost 72%
6 @ GB Lost 32%
7 @ PHI Won 35%
8 vs ARI Lost 68%
Week 16

Other games this week

Home team's chance to win before kickoff. Higher means the home team is more likely to win.

Dots: ESF model home win probability.

How to read this page

CAP win pct. A fading average of game scores with a half-life of 7 of the team's own games. A win scores 1 plus the opponent's win pct; a loss scores the opponent's win pct minus 1. Last season carries in. League average is 0.50; higher is better.

CAP yards per attempt. Yards per play relative to what the down, distance, field position and the specific opponent would predict. Offense: higher is better. Defense (yards allowed): lower is better.

Box score yards per attempt. Yards divided by attempts, counted the way an official box score counts them: rushing includes scrambles and kneel-downs; passing is gross yards per pass attempt, sacks excluded.

ESF win probability. A logistic regression on both teams' pre-game CAP win pct, with an intercept for home field.