∅ Empty Set Football
Week 16 · 2026 regular season

Cincinnati Bengals at Indianapolis Colts

Sun, Dec 27, 10:00 AM PT

Win probability
ESF
(win probability)
CIN 65%
35% IND

No betting line yet. Lines appear once books post them.

Unit matchups · entering week 16

Where each side has the edge

Each offense against the defense it faces, in CAP yards per attempt. Offense: higher is better. Defense (yards allowed): lower is better.

Pass: CIN offense vs IND defense
+0.3312th
box score 7.9 · 6th
Edge
CIN
+0.7928th
box score 7.9 allowed · 27th
Rush: CIN offense vs IND defense
−0.1020th
box score 3.7 · 28th
Even
+0.1822nd
box score 4.9 allowed · 30th
Pass: IND offense vs CIN defense
−1.0130th
box score 5.7 · 31st
Edge
CIN
+0.7127th
box score 7.5 allowed · 24th
Rush: IND offense vs CIN defense
+0.506th
box score 4.1 · 17th
Edge
IND
+0.4728th
box score 4.8 allowed · 29th

CAP yards per attempt: yards per play relative to what the down, distance, field position and the specific opponent would predict; offense positive is good, defense (allowed) negative is good. Box score: yards per attempt as an official box score counts them, entering week 16.

CAP yards per attempt · 2026

How each matchup got here

Each unit's CAP yards per attempt entering each week. Offense: higher is better. Defense (yards allowed): lower is better. 0 is what the situation and opponent would predict.

CIN pass offense vs IND pass defense
CIN pass offense IND pass defense (allowed)
−0.3 0 +0.3 +0.5 +0.8 +1.0 +1.3 0 = expected wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6wk 7wk 8 CIN +0.21 IND +0.60 −0.3 0 +0.3 +0.5 +0.8 +1.0 +1.3 0 = expected wk 1wk 3wk 6wk 8 CIN +0.21 IND +0.60
IND pass offense vs CIN pass defense
IND pass offense CIN pass defense (allowed)
−1.0 −0.8 −0.5 −0.3 0 +0.3 +0.5 +0.8 +1.0 0 = expected wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6wk 7wk 8 IND −0.82 CIN +0.58 −1.0 −0.8 −0.5 −0.3 0 +0.3 +0.5 +0.8 +1.0 0 = expected wk 1wk 3wk 6wk 8 IND −0.82 CIN +0.58
CIN rush offense vs IND rush defense
CIN rush offense IND rush defense (allowed)
−0.5 −0.3 0 +0.3 0 = expected wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6wk 7wk 8 CIN −0.09 IND −0.01 −0.5 −0.3 0 +0.3 0 = expected wk 1wk 3wk 6wk 8 CIN −0.09 IND −0.01
IND rush offense vs CIN rush defense
IND rush offense CIN rush defense (allowed)
−0.3 0 +0.3 +0.5 +0.8 +1.0 0 = expected wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6wk 7wk 8 IND +0.47 CIN +0.35 −0.3 0 +0.3 +0.5 +0.8 +1.0 0 = expected wk 1wk 3wk 6wk 8 IND +0.47 CIN +0.35
CAP win pct · 2026

How each team got here

CAP win pct entering each week. Higher is better; the league average is 0.50.

0.00 0.25 0.50 avg 0.75 wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6wk 7wk 8 CIN 0.61 IND 0.15 0.00 0.25 0.50 avg 0.75 wk 1wk 3wk 6wk 8 CIN 0.61 IND 0.15
2026 results

Results so far

Each team's games before this one, with ESF's pre-game win probability for the team.

CIN Cincinnati Bengals

WeekOpponentResultESF win prob
pre-game, this team
1 vs TB Won 63%
2 @ HOU Won 30%
3 @ PIT Lost 44%
4 vs JAX Lost 43%
5 @ MIA Won 54%
7 @ BAL Won 37%
8 vs TEN Won 79%

IND Indianapolis Colts

WeekOpponentResultESF win prob
pre-game, this team
1 vs BAL Lost 41%
2 @ KC Lost 34%
3 vs HOU Won 34%
4 @ WAS Won 49%
5 @ PIT Lost 37%
6 vs TEN Lost 72%
7 @ MIN Lost 18%
8 @ JAX Lost 21%
Week 16

Other games this week

Home team's chance to win before kickoff. Higher means the home team is more likely to win.

Dots: ESF model home win probability.

How to read this page

CAP win pct. A fading average of game scores with a half-life of 7 of the team's own games. A win scores 1 plus the opponent's win pct; a loss scores the opponent's win pct minus 1. Last season carries in. League average is 0.50; higher is better.

CAP yards per attempt. Yards per play relative to what the down, distance, field position and the specific opponent would predict. Offense: higher is better. Defense (yards allowed): lower is better.

Box score yards per attempt. Yards divided by attempts, counted the way an official box score counts them: rushing includes scrambles and kneel-downs; passing is gross yards per pass attempt, sacks excluded.

ESF win probability. A logistic regression on both teams' pre-game CAP win pct, with an intercept for home field.