∅ Empty Set Football
Week 16 · 2026 regular season

Green Bay Packers at Chicago Bears

Fri, Dec 25, 10:00 AM PT

Win probability
ESF
(win probability)
GB 37%
63% CHI

No betting line yet. Lines appear once books post them.

Unit matchups · entering week 16

Where each side has the edge

Each offense against the defense it faces, in CAP yards per attempt. Offense: higher is better. Defense (yards allowed): lower is better.

Pass: GB offense vs CHI defense
+0.2413th
box score 7.2 · 14th
Edge
GB
+0.9629th
box score 8.7 allowed · 32nd
Rush: GB offense vs CHI defense
−0.6629th
box score 2.9 · 32nd
Edge
CHI
+0.3225th
box score 4.4 allowed · 22nd
Pass: CHI offense vs GB defense
+0.359th
box score 7.4 · 13th
Edge
GB
−0.724th
box score 6.2 allowed · 4th
Rush: CHI offense vs GB defense
+0.429th
box score 4.4 · 12th
Even
−0.3011th
box score 3.9 allowed · 13th

CAP yards per attempt: yards per play relative to what the down, distance, field position and the specific opponent would predict; offense positive is good, defense (allowed) negative is good. Box score: yards per attempt as an official box score counts them, entering week 16.

CAP yards per attempt · 2026

How each matchup got here

Each unit's CAP yards per attempt entering each week. Offense: higher is better. Defense (yards allowed): lower is better. 0 is what the situation and opponent would predict.

GB pass offense vs CHI pass defense
GB pass offense CHI pass defense (allowed)
−0.3 0 +0.3 +0.5 +0.8 +1.0 +1.3 +1.5 0 = expected wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6wk 7wk 8 GB +0.20 CHI +0.96 −0.3 0 +0.3 +0.5 +0.8 +1.0 +1.3 +1.5 0 = expected wk 1wk 3wk 6wk 8 GB +0.20 CHI +0.96
CHI pass offense vs GB pass defense
CHI pass offense GB pass defense (allowed)
−1.0 −0.8 −0.5 −0.3 0 +0.3 +0.5 0 = expected wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6wk 7wk 8 CHI +0.35 GB −0.52 −1.0 −0.8 −0.5 −0.3 0 +0.3 +0.5 0 = expected wk 1wk 3wk 6wk 8 CHI +0.35 GB −0.52
GB rush offense vs CHI rush defense
GB rush offense CHI rush defense (allowed)
−0.8 −0.5 −0.3 0 +0.3 +0.5 +0.8 0 = expected wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6wk 7wk 8 GB −0.51 CHI +0.32 −0.8 −0.5 −0.3 0 +0.3 +0.5 +0.8 0 = expected wk 1wk 3wk 6wk 8 GB −0.51 CHI +0.32
CHI rush offense vs GB rush defense
CHI rush offense GB rush defense (allowed)
−0.8 −0.5 −0.3 0 +0.3 +0.5 +0.8 +1.0 0 = expected wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6wk 7wk 8 CHI +0.42 GB −0.30 −0.8 −0.5 −0.3 0 +0.3 +0.5 +0.8 +1.0 0 = expected wk 1wk 3wk 6wk 8 CHI +0.42 GB −0.30
CAP win pct · 2026

How each team got here

CAP win pct entering each week. Higher is better; the league average is 0.50.

0.25 0.50 avg 0.75 1.00 wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6wk 7wk 8 GB 0.63 CHI 0.85 0.25 0.50 avg 0.75 1.00 wk 1wk 3wk 6wk 8 GB 0.63 CHI 0.85
2026 results

Results so far

Each team's games before this one, with ESF's pre-game win probability for the team.

GB Green Bay Packers

WeekOpponentResultESF win prob
pre-game, this team
1 @ MIN Lost 40%
2 @ NYJ Won 62%
3 vs ATL Lost 67%
4 @ TB Won 63%
5 vs CHI Won 48%
6 vs DAL Won 68%
7 @ DET Lost 50%
8 vs CAR Won 64%

CHI Chicago Bears

WeekOpponentResultESF win prob
pre-game, this team
1 @ CAR Won 56%
2 vs MIN Lost 57%
3 vs PHI Won 47%
4 vs NYJ Won 81%
5 @ GB Lost 52%
6 @ ATL Won 54%
7 vs NE Won 53%
Week 16

Other games this week

Home team's chance to win before kickoff. Higher means the home team is more likely to win.

Dots: ESF model home win probability.

How to read this page

CAP win pct. A fading average of game scores with a half-life of 7 of the team's own games. A win scores 1 plus the opponent's win pct; a loss scores the opponent's win pct minus 1. Last season carries in. League average is 0.50; higher is better.

CAP yards per attempt. Yards per play relative to what the down, distance, field position and the specific opponent would predict. Offense: higher is better. Defense (yards allowed): lower is better.

Box score yards per attempt. Yards divided by attempts, counted the way an official box score counts them: rushing includes scrambles and kneel-downs; passing is gross yards per pass attempt, sacks excluded.

ESF win probability. A logistic regression on both teams' pre-game CAP win pct, with an intercept for home field.