∅ Empty Set Football
Week 11 · 2026 regular season

Minnesota Vikings at San Francisco 49ers

Sun, Nov 22, 5:20 PM PT

Win probability
ESF
(win probability)
MIN 37%
63% SF

No betting line yet. Lines appear once books post them.

Unit matchups · entering week 11

Where each side has the edge

Each offense against the defense it faces, in CAP yards per attempt. Offense: higher is better. Defense (yards allowed): lower is better.

Pass: MIN offense vs SF defense
−0.5725th
box score 6.7 · 22nd
Edge
SF
−0.2511th
box score 6.3 allowed · 6th
Rush: MIN offense vs SF defense
−0.4626th
box score 4.0 · 22nd
Edge
SF
−0.515th
box score 3.5 allowed · 3rd
Pass: SF offense vs MIN defense
+1.304th
box score 8.3 · 4th
Even
−1.092nd
box score 6.2 allowed · 3rd
Rush: SF offense vs MIN defense
+0.3111th
box score 4.7 · 6th
Even
−0.1612th
box score 4.5 allowed · 24th

CAP yards per attempt: yards per play relative to what the down, distance, field position and the specific opponent would predict; offense positive is good, defense (allowed) negative is good. Box score: yards per attempt as an official box score counts them, entering week 11.

CAP yards per attempt · 2026

How each matchup got here

Each unit's CAP yards per attempt entering each week. Offense: higher is better. Defense (yards allowed): lower is better. 0 is what the situation and opponent would predict.

MIN pass offense vs SF pass defense
MIN pass offense SF pass defense (allowed)
−1.0 −0.8 −0.5 −0.3 0 +0.3 0 = expected wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6wk 7wk 8 MIN −0.61 SF −0.25 −1.0 −0.8 −0.5 −0.3 0 +0.3 0 = expected wk 1wk 3wk 6wk 8 MIN −0.61 SF −0.25
SF pass offense vs MIN pass defense
SF pass offense MIN pass defense (allowed)
−1.5 −1.0 −0.5 0 +0.5 +1.0 +1.5 +2.0 0 = expected wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6wk 7wk 8 SF +1.30 MIN −1.05 −1.5 −1.0 −0.5 0 +0.5 +1.0 +1.5 +2.0 0 = expected wk 1wk 3wk 6wk 8 SF +1.30 MIN −1.05
MIN rush offense vs SF rush defense
MIN rush offense SF rush defense (allowed)
−0.8 −0.5 −0.3 0 +0.3 0 = expected wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6wk 7wk 8 MIN −0.41 SF −0.51 −0.8 −0.5 −0.3 0 +0.3 0 = expected wk 1wk 3wk 6wk 8 MIN −0.41 SF −0.51
SF rush offense vs MIN rush defense
SF rush offense MIN rush defense (allowed)
−1.0 −0.8 −0.5 −0.3 0 +0.3 +0.5 0 = expected wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6wk 7wk 8 SF +0.31 MIN −0.44 −1.0 −0.8 −0.5 −0.3 0 +0.3 +0.5 0 = expected wk 1wk 3wk 6wk 8 SF +0.31 MIN −0.44
CAP win pct · 2026

How each team got here

CAP win pct entering each week. Higher is better; the league average is 0.50.

0.25 0.50 avg 0.75 1.00 1.25 1.50 wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6wk 7wk 8 MIN 1.01 SF 0.99 0.25 0.50 avg 0.75 1.00 1.25 1.50 wk 1wk 3wk 6wk 8 MIN 1.01 SF 0.99
2026 results

Results so far

Each team's games before this one, with ESF's pre-game win probability for the team.

MIN Minnesota Vikings

WeekOpponentResultESF win prob
pre-game, this team
1 vs GB Won 60%
2 @ CHI Won 43%
3 @ TB Won 73%
4 vs MIA Won 78%
5 @ NO Won 69%
7 vs IND Won 82%
8 @ DET Lost 56%

SF San Francisco 49ers

WeekOpponentResultESF win prob
pre-game, this team
1 @ LA Won 46%
2 vs MIA Won 77%
3 vs ARI Won 86%
4 vs DEN Won 60%
5 @ SEA Won 44%
6 vs WAS Won 86%
7 @ ATL Lost 72%
Week 11

Other games this week

Home team's chance to win before kickoff. Higher means the home team is more likely to win.

Dots: ESF model home win probability.

How to read this page

CAP win pct. A fading average of game scores with a half-life of 7 of the team's own games. A win scores 1 plus the opponent's win pct; a loss scores the opponent's win pct minus 1. Last season carries in. League average is 0.50; higher is better.

CAP yards per attempt. Yards per play relative to what the down, distance, field position and the specific opponent would predict. Offense: higher is better. Defense (yards allowed): lower is better.

Box score yards per attempt. Yards divided by attempts, counted the way an official box score counts them: rushing includes scrambles and kneel-downs; passing is gross yards per pass attempt, sacks excluded.

ESF win probability. A logistic regression on both teams' pre-game CAP win pct, with an intercept for home field.