∅ Empty Set Football
Week 11 · 2026 regular season

Jacksonville Jaguars at New York Giants

Sun, Nov 22, 10:00 AM PT

Win probability
ESF
(win probability)
JAX 66%
34% NYG

No betting line yet. Lines appear once books post them.

Unit matchups · entering week 11

Where each side has the edge

Each offense against the defense it faces, in CAP yards per attempt. Offense: higher is better. Defense (yards allowed): lower is better.

Pass: JAX offense vs NYG defense
+1.265th
box score 8.4 · 3rd
Edge
JAX
−0.2213th
box score 6.1 allowed · 2nd
Rush: JAX offense vs NYG defense
+0.0912th
box score 4.3 · 13th
Edge
JAX
+0.6630th
box score 4.8 allowed · 27th
Pass: NYG offense vs JAX defense
−0.3722nd
box score 7.1 · 18th
Edge
JAX
+0.0818th
box score 7.6 allowed · 26th
Rush: NYG offense vs JAX defense
−0.1824th
box score 4.1 · 20th
Edge
JAX
−0.544th
box score 3.4 allowed · 1st

CAP yards per attempt: yards per play relative to what the down, distance, field position and the specific opponent would predict; offense positive is good, defense (allowed) negative is good. Box score: yards per attempt as an official box score counts them, entering week 11.

CAP yards per attempt · 2026

How each matchup got here

Each unit's CAP yards per attempt entering each week. Offense: higher is better. Defense (yards allowed): lower is better. 0 is what the situation and opponent would predict.

JAX pass offense vs NYG pass defense
JAX pass offense NYG pass defense (allowed)
−0.5 −0.3 0 +0.3 +0.5 +0.8 +1.0 +1.3 0 = expected wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6wk 7wk 8 JAX +1.04 NYG −0.22 −0.5 −0.3 0 +0.3 +0.5 +0.8 +1.0 +1.3 0 = expected wk 1wk 3wk 6wk 8 JAX +1.04 NYG −0.22
NYG pass offense vs JAX pass defense
NYG pass offense JAX pass defense (allowed)
−1.3 −1.0 −0.8 −0.5 −0.3 0 +0.3 +0.5 0 = expected wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6wk 7wk 8 NYG −0.37 JAX +0.19 −1.3 −1.0 −0.8 −0.5 −0.3 0 +0.3 +0.5 0 = expected wk 1wk 3wk 6wk 8 NYG −0.37 JAX +0.19
JAX rush offense vs NYG rush defense
JAX rush offense NYG rush defense (allowed)
−0.5 −0.3 0 +0.3 +0.5 +0.8 +1.0 0 = expected wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6wk 7wk 8 JAX −0.08 NYG +0.66 −0.5 −0.3 0 +0.3 +0.5 +0.8 +1.0 0 = expected wk 1wk 3wk 6wk 8 JAX −0.08 NYG +0.66
NYG rush offense vs JAX rush defense
NYG rush offense JAX rush defense (allowed)
−1.0 −0.8 −0.5 −0.3 0 +0.3 0 = expected wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6wk 7wk 8 NYG −0.18 JAX −0.58 −1.0 −0.8 −0.5 −0.3 0 +0.3 0 = expected wk 1wk 3wk 6wk 8 NYG −0.18 JAX −0.58
CAP win pct · 2026

How each team got here

CAP win pct entering each week. Higher is better; the league average is 0.50.

−0.25 0.00 0.25 0.50 avg 0.75 1.00 1.25 wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6wk 7wk 8 JAX 0.87 NYG 0.30 −0.25 0.00 0.25 0.50 avg 0.75 1.00 1.25 wk 1wk 3wk 6wk 8 JAX 0.87 NYG 0.30
2026 results

Results so far

Each team's games before this one, with ESF's pre-game win probability for the team.

JAX Jacksonville Jaguars

WeekOpponentResultESF win prob
pre-game, this team
1 vs CLE Won 82%
2 @ DEN Lost 44%
3 vs NE Won 58%
4 @ CIN Won 57%
5 vs PHI Won 66%
6 vs HOU Lost 73%
8 vs IND Won 79%

NYG New York Giants

WeekOpponentResultESF win prob
pre-game, this team
1 vs DAL Won 35%
2 @ LA Lost 24%
3 vs TEN Won 59%
4 vs ARI Won 60%
5 @ WAS Tie 51%
6 vs NO Lost 56%
7 @ HOU Won 27%
Week 11

Other games this week

Home team's chance to win before kickoff. Higher means the home team is more likely to win.

Dots: ESF model home win probability.

How to read this page

CAP win pct. A fading average of game scores with a half-life of 7 of the team's own games. A win scores 1 plus the opponent's win pct; a loss scores the opponent's win pct minus 1. Last season carries in. League average is 0.50; higher is better.

CAP yards per attempt. Yards per play relative to what the down, distance, field position and the specific opponent would predict. Offense: higher is better. Defense (yards allowed): lower is better.

Box score yards per attempt. Yards divided by attempts, counted the way an official box score counts them: rushing includes scrambles and kneel-downs; passing is gross yards per pass attempt, sacks excluded.

ESF win probability. A logistic regression on both teams' pre-game CAP win pct, with an intercept for home field.