∅ Empty Set Football
Week 11 · 2026 regular season

Cincinnati Bengals at Washington Commanders

Mon, Nov 23, 5:15 PM PT

Win probability
ESF
(win probability)
CIN 61%
39% WAS

No betting line yet. Lines appear once books post them.

Unit matchups · entering week 11

Where each side has the edge

Each offense against the defense it faces, in CAP yards per attempt. Offense: higher is better. Defense (yards allowed): lower is better.

Pass: CIN offense vs WAS defense
+0.3312th
box score 7.9 · 6th
Edge
CIN
+0.3923rd
box score 7.2 allowed · 17th
Rush: CIN offense vs WAS defense
−0.1020th
box score 3.7 · 28th
Even
+0.1118th
box score 3.9 allowed · 12th
Pass: WAS offense vs CIN defense
+0.0315th
box score 6.5 · 24th
Edge
WAS
+0.7127th
box score 7.5 allowed · 24th
Rush: WAS offense vs CIN defense
−0.0117th
box score 4.6 · 7th
Edge
WAS
+0.4728th
box score 4.8 allowed · 29th

CAP yards per attempt: yards per play relative to what the down, distance, field position and the specific opponent would predict; offense positive is good, defense (allowed) negative is good. Box score: yards per attempt as an official box score counts them, entering week 11.

CAP yards per attempt · 2026

How each matchup got here

Each unit's CAP yards per attempt entering each week. Offense: higher is better. Defense (yards allowed): lower is better. 0 is what the situation and opponent would predict.

CIN pass offense vs WAS pass defense
CIN pass offense WAS pass defense (allowed)
−0.3 0 +0.3 +0.5 +0.8 +1.0 0 = expected wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6wk 7wk 8 CIN +0.21 WAS +0.36 −0.3 0 +0.3 +0.5 +0.8 +1.0 0 = expected wk 1wk 3wk 6wk 8 CIN +0.21 WAS +0.36
WAS pass offense vs CIN pass defense
WAS pass offense CIN pass defense (allowed)
−0.5 −0.3 0 +0.3 +0.5 +0.8 +1.0 0 = expected wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6wk 7wk 8 WAS −0.07 CIN +0.58 −0.5 −0.3 0 +0.3 +0.5 +0.8 +1.0 0 = expected wk 1wk 3wk 6wk 8 WAS −0.07 CIN +0.58
CIN rush offense vs WAS rush defense
CIN rush offense WAS rush defense (allowed)
−0.3 0 +0.3 +0.5 +0.8 +1.0 0 = expected wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6wk 7wk 8 CIN −0.09 WAS +0.24 −0.3 0 +0.3 +0.5 +0.8 +1.0 0 = expected wk 1wk 3wk 6wk 8 CIN −0.09 WAS +0.24
WAS rush offense vs CIN rush defense
WAS rush offense CIN rush defense (allowed)
−0.3 0 +0.3 +0.5 +0.8 +1.0 0 = expected wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6wk 7wk 8 WAS −0.06 CIN +0.35 −0.3 0 +0.3 +0.5 +0.8 +1.0 0 = expected wk 1wk 3wk 6wk 8 WAS −0.06 CIN +0.35
CAP win pct · 2026

How each team got here

CAP win pct entering each week. Higher is better; the league average is 0.50.

−0.25 0.00 0.25 0.50 avg 0.75 wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6wk 7wk 8 CIN 0.61 WAS 0.10 −0.25 0.00 0.25 0.50 avg 0.75 wk 1wk 3wk 6wk 8 CIN 0.61 WAS 0.10
2026 results

Results so far

Each team's games before this one, with ESF's pre-game win probability for the team.

CIN Cincinnati Bengals

WeekOpponentResultESF win prob
pre-game, this team
1 vs TB Won 63%
2 @ HOU Won 30%
3 @ PIT Lost 44%
4 vs JAX Lost 43%
5 @ MIA Won 54%
7 @ BAL Won 37%
8 vs TEN Won 79%

WAS Washington Commanders

WeekOpponentResultESF win prob
pre-game, this team
1 @ PHI Lost 18%
2 @ DAL Lost 34%
3 vs SEA Won 19%
4 vs IND Lost 51%
5 vs NYG Tie 49%
6 @ SF Lost 14%
8 vs PHI Won 43%
Week 11

Other games this week

Home team's chance to win before kickoff. Higher means the home team is more likely to win.

Dots: ESF model home win probability.

How to read this page

CAP win pct. A fading average of game scores with a half-life of 7 of the team's own games. A win scores 1 plus the opponent's win pct; a loss scores the opponent's win pct minus 1. Last season carries in. League average is 0.50; higher is better.

CAP yards per attempt. Yards per play relative to what the down, distance, field position and the specific opponent would predict. Offense: higher is better. Defense (yards allowed): lower is better.

Box score yards per attempt. Yards divided by attempts, counted the way an official box score counts them: rushing includes scrambles and kneel-downs; passing is gross yards per pass attempt, sacks excluded.

ESF win probability. A logistic regression on both teams' pre-game CAP win pct, with an intercept for home field.