∅ Empty Set Football
Week 18 · 2026 regular season

Tennessee Titans at Houston Texans

Sun, Jan 10, 10:00 AM PT

Win probability
ESF
(win probability)
TEN 23%
77% HOU

No betting line yet. Lines appear once books post them.

Unit matchups · entering week 18

Where each side has the edge

Each offense against the defense it faces, in CAP yards per attempt. Offense: higher is better. Defense (yards allowed): lower is better.

Pass: TEN offense vs HOU defense
−1.0231st
box score 6.0 · 27th
Edge
HOU
−0.3210th
box score 7.5 allowed · 23rd
Rush: TEN offense vs HOU defense
+0.0814th
box score 4.2 · 15th
Edge
HOU
−0.407th
box score 3.8 allowed · 9th
Pass: HOU offense vs TEN defense
−0.0716th
box score 7.5 · 11th
Edge
HOU
+1.2932nd
box score 8.0 allowed · 29th
Rush: HOU offense vs TEN defense
−0.6730th
box score 3.6 · 29th
Edge
TEN
+0.2123rd
box score 4.2 allowed · 18th

CAP yards per attempt: yards per play relative to what the down, distance, field position and the specific opponent would predict; offense positive is good, defense (allowed) negative is good. Box score: yards per attempt as an official box score counts them, entering week 18.

CAP yards per attempt · 2026

How each matchup got here

Each unit's CAP yards per attempt entering each week. Offense: higher is better. Defense (yards allowed): lower is better. 0 is what the situation and opponent would predict.

TEN pass offense vs HOU pass defense
TEN pass offense HOU pass defense (allowed)
−1.5 −1.3 −1.0 −0.8 −0.5 −0.3 0 +0.3 0 = expected wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6wk 7wk 8 TEN −1.16 HOU −0.32 −1.5 −1.3 −1.0 −0.8 −0.5 −0.3 0 +0.3 0 = expected wk 1wk 3wk 6wk 8 TEN −1.16 HOU −0.32
HOU pass offense vs TEN pass defense
HOU pass offense TEN pass defense (allowed)
−0.8 −0.5 −0.3 0 +0.3 +0.5 +0.8 +1.0 +1.3 +1.5 +1.8 0 = expected wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6wk 7wk 8 HOU −0.07 TEN +1.12 −0.8 −0.5 −0.3 0 +0.3 +0.5 +0.8 +1.0 +1.3 +1.5 +1.8 0 = expected wk 1wk 3wk 6wk 8 HOU −0.07 TEN +1.12
TEN rush offense vs HOU rush defense
TEN rush offense HOU rush defense (allowed)
−1.3 −1.0 −0.8 −0.5 −0.3 0 +0.3 0 = expected wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6wk 7wk 8 TEN −0.05 HOU −0.40 −1.3 −1.0 −0.8 −0.5 −0.3 0 +0.3 0 = expected wk 1wk 3wk 6wk 8 TEN −0.05 HOU −0.40
HOU rush offense vs TEN rush defense
HOU rush offense TEN rush defense (allowed)
−1.0 −0.8 −0.5 −0.3 0 +0.3 +0.5 0 = expected wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6wk 7wk 8 HOU −0.67 TEN +0.24 −1.0 −0.8 −0.5 −0.3 0 +0.3 +0.5 0 = expected wk 1wk 3wk 6wk 8 HOU −0.67 TEN +0.24
CAP win pct · 2026

How each team got here

CAP win pct entering each week. Higher is better; the league average is 0.50.

−0.50 −0.25 0.00 0.25 0.50 avg 0.75 1.00 1.25 wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6wk 7wk 8 TEN −0.10 HOU 0.54 −0.50 −0.25 0.00 0.25 0.50 avg 0.75 1.00 1.25 wk 1wk 3wk 6wk 8 TEN −0.10 HOU 0.54
2026 results

Results so far

Each team's games before this one, with ESF's pre-game win probability for the team.

TEN Tennessee Titans

WeekOpponentResultESF win prob
pre-game, this team
1 vs NYJ Lost 54%
2 vs PHI Lost 20%
3 @ NYG Lost 41%
4 @ BAL Lost 18%
5 vs HOU Lost 30%
6 @ IND Won 28%
7 vs CLE Lost 36%
8 @ CIN Lost 21%

HOU Houston Texans

WeekOpponentResultESF win prob
pre-game, this team
1 vs BUF Lost 62%
2 vs CIN Lost 70%
3 @ IND Lost 66%
4 vs DAL Lost 65%
5 @ TEN Won 70%
6 @ JAX Won 27%
7 vs NYG Lost 73%
Week 18

Other games this week

Home team's chance to win before kickoff. Higher means the home team is more likely to win.

Dots: ESF model home win probability.

How to read this page

CAP win pct. A fading average of game scores with a half-life of 7 of the team's own games. A win scores 1 plus the opponent's win pct; a loss scores the opponent's win pct minus 1. Last season carries in. League average is 0.50; higher is better.

CAP yards per attempt. Yards per play relative to what the down, distance, field position and the specific opponent would predict. Offense: higher is better. Defense (yards allowed): lower is better.

Box score yards per attempt. Yards divided by attempts, counted the way an official box score counts them: rushing includes scrambles and kneel-downs; passing is gross yards per pass attempt, sacks excluded.

ESF win probability. A logistic regression on both teams' pre-game CAP win pct, with an intercept for home field.