∅ Empty Set Football
Week 18 · 2026 regular season

Los Angeles Chargers at Denver Broncos

Sun, Jan 10, 10:00 AM PT

Win probability
ESF
(win probability)
LAC 17%
83% DEN

No betting line yet. Lines appear once books post them.

Unit matchups · entering week 18

Where each side has the edge

Each offense against the defense it faces, in CAP yards per attempt. Offense: higher is better. Defense (yards allowed): lower is better.

Pass: LAC offense vs DEN defense
−0.0917th
box score 6.6 · 23rd
Edge
DEN
−0.793rd
box score 6.5 allowed · 8th
Rush: LAC offense vs DEN defense
−0.4727th
box score 4.0 · 21st
Edge
DEN
−0.1413th
box score 4.5 allowed · 23rd
Pass: DEN offense vs LAC defense
−0.7327th
box score 6.0 · 28th
Edge
LAC
−0.0817th
box score 7.4 allowed · 21st
Rush: DEN offense vs LAC defense
−0.1321st
box score 3.8 · 26th
Edge
LAC
+0.0816th
box score 4.1 allowed · 16th

CAP yards per attempt: yards per play relative to what the down, distance, field position and the specific opponent would predict; offense positive is good, defense (allowed) negative is good. Box score: yards per attempt as an official box score counts them, entering week 18.

CAP yards per attempt · 2026

How each matchup got here

Each unit's CAP yards per attempt entering each week. Offense: higher is better. Defense (yards allowed): lower is better. 0 is what the situation and opponent would predict.

LAC pass offense vs DEN pass defense
LAC pass offense DEN pass defense (allowed)
−1.3 −1.0 −0.8 −0.5 −0.3 0 +0.3 +0.5 0 = expected wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6wk 7wk 8 LAC −0.20 DEN −0.99 −1.3 −1.0 −0.8 −0.5 −0.3 0 +0.3 +0.5 0 = expected wk 1wk 3wk 6wk 8 LAC −0.20 DEN −0.99
DEN pass offense vs LAC pass defense
DEN pass offense LAC pass defense (allowed)
−1.0 −0.8 −0.5 −0.3 0 +0.3 0 = expected wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6wk 7wk 8 DEN −0.81 LAC +0.04 −1.0 −0.8 −0.5 −0.3 0 +0.3 0 = expected wk 1wk 3wk 6wk 8 DEN −0.81 LAC +0.04
LAC rush offense vs DEN rush defense
LAC rush offense DEN rush defense (allowed)
−0.8 −0.5 −0.3 0 +0.3 0 = expected wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6wk 7wk 8 LAC −0.33 DEN −0.04 −0.8 −0.5 −0.3 0 +0.3 0 = expected wk 1wk 3wk 6wk 8 LAC −0.33 DEN −0.04
DEN rush offense vs LAC rush defense
DEN rush offense LAC rush defense (allowed)
−0.5 −0.3 0 +0.3 0 = expected wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6wk 7wk 8 DEN −0.19 LAC +0.13 −0.5 −0.3 0 +0.3 0 = expected wk 1wk 3wk 6wk 8 DEN −0.19 LAC +0.13
CAP win pct · 2026

How each team got here

CAP win pct entering each week. Higher is better; the league average is 0.50.

0.00 0.25 0.50 avg 0.75 1.00 1.25 wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6wk 7wk 8 LAC 0.27 DEN 1.02 0.00 0.25 0.50 avg 0.75 1.00 1.25 wk 1wk 3wk 6wk 8 LAC 0.27 DEN 1.02
2026 results

Results so far

Each team's games before this one, with ESF's pre-game win probability for the team.

LAC Los Angeles Chargers

WeekOpponentResultESF win prob
pre-game, this team
1 vs ARI Lost 84%
2 vs LV Lost 79%
3 @ BUF Lost 26%
4 @ SEA Lost 26%
5 vs DEN Lost 39%
6 @ KC Lost 30%
8 @ LA Lost 33%

DEN Denver Broncos

WeekOpponentResultESF win prob
pre-game, this team
1 @ KC Lost 66%
2 vs JAX Won 56%
3 vs LA Won 65%
4 @ SF Lost 40%
5 @ LAC Won 61%
6 vs SEA Won 60%
7 @ ARI Won 77%
8 vs KC Won 70%
Week 18

Other games this week

Home team's chance to win before kickoff. Higher means the home team is more likely to win.

Dots: ESF model home win probability.

How to read this page

CAP win pct. A fading average of game scores with a half-life of 7 of the team's own games. A win scores 1 plus the opponent's win pct; a loss scores the opponent's win pct minus 1. Last season carries in. League average is 0.50; higher is better.

CAP yards per attempt. Yards per play relative to what the down, distance, field position and the specific opponent would predict. Offense: higher is better. Defense (yards allowed): lower is better.

Box score yards per attempt. Yards divided by attempts, counted the way an official box score counts them: rushing includes scrambles and kneel-downs; passing is gross yards per pass attempt, sacks excluded.

ESF win probability. A logistic regression on both teams' pre-game CAP win pct, with an intercept for home field.