∅ Empty Set Football
Week 15 · 2026 regular season

New Orleans Saints at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Sun, Dec 20, 10:00 AM PT

Win probability
ESF
(win probability)
NO 42%
58% TB

No betting line yet. Lines appear once books post them.

Unit matchups · entering week 15

Where each side has the edge

Each offense against the defense it faces, in CAP yards per attempt. Offense: higher is better. Defense (yards allowed): lower is better.

Pass: NO offense vs TB defense
−0.5224th
box score 6.3 · 26th
Edge
TB
−0.1515th
box score 6.5 allowed · 9th
Rush: NO offense vs TB defense
−0.9632nd
box score 3.5 · 30th
Edge
TB
−0.329th
box score 3.6 allowed · 5th
Pass: TB offense vs NO defense
−0.9929th
box score 5.7 · 32nd
Edge
NO
+0.6325th
box score 7.6 allowed · 25th
Rush: TB offense vs NO defense
+0.3910th
box score 5.1 · 2nd
Edge
TB
+0.2724th
box score 4.8 allowed · 26th

CAP yards per attempt: yards per play relative to what the down, distance, field position and the specific opponent would predict; offense positive is good, defense (allowed) negative is good. Box score: yards per attempt as an official box score counts them, entering week 15.

CAP yards per attempt · 2026

How each matchup got here

Each unit's CAP yards per attempt entering each week. Offense: higher is better. Defense (yards allowed): lower is better. 0 is what the situation and opponent would predict.

NO pass offense vs TB pass defense
NO pass offense TB pass defense (allowed)
−0.8 −0.5 −0.3 0 +0.3 +0.5 +0.8 0 = expected wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6wk 7wk 8 NO −0.52 TB −0.03 −0.8 −0.5 −0.3 0 +0.3 +0.5 +0.8 0 = expected wk 1wk 3wk 6wk 8 NO −0.52 TB −0.03
TB pass offense vs NO pass defense
TB pass offense NO pass defense (allowed)
−1.3 −1.0 −0.8 −0.5 −0.3 0 +0.3 +0.5 +0.8 0 = expected wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6wk 7wk 8 TB −0.94 NO +0.63 −1.3 −1.0 −0.8 −0.5 −0.3 0 +0.3 +0.5 +0.8 0 = expected wk 1wk 3wk 6wk 8 TB −0.94 NO +0.63
NO rush offense vs TB rush defense
NO rush offense TB rush defense (allowed)
−1.3 −1.0 −0.8 −0.5 −0.3 0 +0.3 +0.5 0 = expected wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6wk 7wk 8 NO −0.96 TB −0.12 −1.3 −1.0 −0.8 −0.5 −0.3 0 +0.3 +0.5 0 = expected wk 1wk 3wk 6wk 8 NO −0.96 TB −0.12
TB rush offense vs NO rush defense
TB rush offense NO rush defense (allowed)
−0.5 −0.3 0 +0.3 +0.5 0 = expected wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6wk 7wk 8 TB +0.15 NO +0.27 −0.5 −0.3 0 +0.3 +0.5 0 = expected wk 1wk 3wk 6wk 8 TB +0.15 NO +0.27
CAP win pct · 2026

How each team got here

CAP win pct entering each week. Higher is better; the league average is 0.50.

−0.25 0.00 0.25 0.50 avg 0.75 wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6wk 7wk 8 NO 0.26 TB 0.21 −0.25 0.00 0.25 0.50 avg 0.75 wk 1wk 3wk 6wk 8 NO 0.26 TB 0.21
2026 results

Results so far

Each team's games before this one, with ESF's pre-game win probability for the team.

NO New Orleans Saints

WeekOpponentResultESF win prob
pre-game, this team
1 @ DET Lost 39%
2 @ BAL Won 29%
3 vs LV Lost 68%
4 vs ATL Lost 53%
5 vs MIN Lost 31%
6 @ NYG Won 44%
7 vs PIT Lost 42%

TB Tampa Bay Buccaneers

WeekOpponentResultESF win prob
pre-game, this team
1 @ CIN Lost 37%
2 vs CLE Lost 57%
3 vs MIN Lost 27%
4 vs GB Lost 37%
5 @ DAL Won 28%
6 vs PIT Lost 36%
7 @ CAR Won 29%
8 vs ATL Won 45%
Week 15

Other games this week

Home team's chance to win before kickoff. Higher means the home team is more likely to win.

Dots: ESF model home win probability.

How to read this page

CAP win pct. A fading average of game scores with a half-life of 7 of the team's own games. A win scores 1 plus the opponent's win pct; a loss scores the opponent's win pct minus 1. Last season carries in. League average is 0.50; higher is better.

CAP yards per attempt. Yards per play relative to what the down, distance, field position and the specific opponent would predict. Offense: higher is better. Defense (yards allowed): lower is better.

Box score yards per attempt. Yards divided by attempts, counted the way an official box score counts them: rushing includes scrambles and kneel-downs; passing is gross yards per pass attempt, sacks excluded.

ESF win probability. A logistic regression on both teams' pre-game CAP win pct, with an intercept for home field.