∅ Empty Set Football
Week 15 · 2026 regular season

Indianapolis Colts at Tennessee Titans

Sun, Dec 20, 10:00 AM PT

Win probability
ESF
(win probability)
IND 56%
44% TEN

No betting line yet. Lines appear once books post them.

Unit matchups · entering week 15

Where each side has the edge

Each offense against the defense it faces, in CAP yards per attempt. Offense: higher is better. Defense (yards allowed): lower is better.

Pass: IND offense vs TEN defense
−1.0130th
box score 5.7 · 31st
Even
+1.2932nd
box score 8.0 allowed · 29th
Rush: IND offense vs TEN defense
+0.506th
box score 4.1 · 17th
Edge
IND
+0.2123rd
box score 4.2 allowed · 18th
Pass: TEN offense vs IND defense
−1.0231st
box score 6.0 · 27th
Edge
IND
+0.7928th
box score 7.9 allowed · 27th
Rush: TEN offense vs IND defense
+0.0814th
box score 4.2 · 15th
Edge
TEN
+0.1822nd
box score 4.9 allowed · 30th

CAP yards per attempt: yards per play relative to what the down, distance, field position and the specific opponent would predict; offense positive is good, defense (allowed) negative is good. Box score: yards per attempt as an official box score counts them, entering week 15.

CAP yards per attempt · 2026

How each matchup got here

Each unit's CAP yards per attempt entering each week. Offense: higher is better. Defense (yards allowed): lower is better. 0 is what the situation and opponent would predict.

IND pass offense vs TEN pass defense
IND pass offense TEN pass defense (allowed)
−1.0 −0.5 0 +0.5 +1.0 +1.5 +2.0 0 = expected wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6wk 7wk 8 IND −0.82 TEN +1.12 −1.0 −0.5 0 +0.5 +1.0 +1.5 +2.0 0 = expected wk 1wk 3wk 6wk 8 IND −0.82 TEN +1.12
TEN pass offense vs IND pass defense
TEN pass offense IND pass defense (allowed)
−1.5 −1.0 −0.5 0 +0.5 +1.0 +1.5 0 = expected wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6wk 7wk 8 TEN −1.16 IND +0.60 −1.5 −1.0 −0.5 0 +0.5 +1.0 +1.5 0 = expected wk 1wk 3wk 6wk 8 TEN −1.16 IND +0.60
IND rush offense vs TEN rush defense
IND rush offense TEN rush defense (allowed)
−0.5 −0.3 0 +0.3 +0.5 +0.8 0 = expected wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6wk 7wk 8 IND +0.47 TEN +0.24 −0.5 −0.3 0 +0.3 +0.5 +0.8 0 = expected wk 1wk 3wk 6wk 8 IND +0.47 TEN +0.24
TEN rush offense vs IND rush defense
TEN rush offense IND rush defense (allowed)
−0.5 −0.3 0 +0.3 0 = expected wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6wk 7wk 8 TEN −0.05 IND −0.01 −0.5 −0.3 0 +0.3 0 = expected wk 1wk 3wk 6wk 8 TEN −0.05 IND −0.01
CAP win pct · 2026

How each team got here

CAP win pct entering each week. Higher is better; the league average is 0.50.

−0.50 −0.25 0.00 0.25 0.50 avg 0.75 wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6wk 7wk 8 IND 0.15 TEN −0.10 −0.50 −0.25 0.00 0.25 0.50 avg 0.75 wk 1wk 3wk 6wk 8 IND 0.15 TEN −0.10
2026 results

Results so far

Each team's games before this one, with ESF's pre-game win probability for the team.

IND Indianapolis Colts

WeekOpponentResultESF win prob
pre-game, this team
1 vs BAL Lost 41%
2 @ KC Lost 34%
3 vs HOU Won 34%
4 @ WAS Won 49%
5 @ PIT Lost 37%
6 vs TEN Lost 72%
7 @ MIN Lost 18%
8 @ JAX Lost 21%

TEN Tennessee Titans

WeekOpponentResultESF win prob
pre-game, this team
1 vs NYJ Lost 54%
2 vs PHI Lost 20%
3 @ NYG Lost 41%
4 @ BAL Lost 18%
5 vs HOU Lost 30%
6 @ IND Won 28%
7 vs CLE Lost 36%
8 @ CIN Lost 21%
Week 15

Other games this week

Home team's chance to win before kickoff. Higher means the home team is more likely to win.

Dots: ESF model home win probability.

How to read this page

CAP win pct. A fading average of game scores with a half-life of 7 of the team's own games. A win scores 1 plus the opponent's win pct; a loss scores the opponent's win pct minus 1. Last season carries in. League average is 0.50; higher is better.

CAP yards per attempt. Yards per play relative to what the down, distance, field position and the specific opponent would predict. Offense: higher is better. Defense (yards allowed): lower is better.

Box score yards per attempt. Yards divided by attempts, counted the way an official box score counts them: rushing includes scrambles and kneel-downs; passing is gross yards per pass attempt, sacks excluded.

ESF win probability. A logistic regression on both teams' pre-game CAP win pct, with an intercept for home field.