∅ Empty Set Football
Week 14 · 2026 regular season

New York Giants at Seattle Seahawks

Sun, Dec 13, 1:25 PM PT

Win probability
ESF
(win probability)
NYG 24%
76% SEA

No betting line yet. Lines appear once books post them.

Unit matchups · entering week 14

Where each side has the edge

Each offense against the defense it faces, in CAP yards per attempt. Offense: higher is better. Defense (yards allowed): lower is better.

Pass: NYG offense vs SEA defense
−0.3722nd
box score 7.1 · 18th
Edge
SEA
−1.741st
box score 5.2 allowed · 1st
Rush: NYG offense vs SEA defense
−0.1824th
box score 4.1 · 20th
Edge
SEA
−1.021st
box score 3.5 allowed · 2nd
Pass: SEA offense vs NYG defense
+0.706th
box score 7.6 · 10th
Edge
SEA
−0.2213th
box score 6.1 allowed · 2nd
Rush: SEA offense vs NYG defense
−0.0319th
box score 3.9 · 24th
Edge
SEA
+0.6630th
box score 4.8 allowed · 27th

CAP yards per attempt: yards per play relative to what the down, distance, field position and the specific opponent would predict; offense positive is good, defense (allowed) negative is good. Box score: yards per attempt as an official box score counts them, entering week 14.

CAP yards per attempt · 2026

How each matchup got here

Each unit's CAP yards per attempt entering each week. Offense: higher is better. Defense (yards allowed): lower is better. 0 is what the situation and opponent would predict.

NYG pass offense vs SEA pass defense
NYG pass offense SEA pass defense (allowed)
−2.0 −1.8 −1.5 −1.3 −1.0 −0.8 −0.5 −0.3 0 +0.3 0 = expected wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6wk 7wk 8 NYG −0.37 SEA −1.74 −2.0 −1.8 −1.5 −1.3 −1.0 −0.8 −0.5 −0.3 0 +0.3 0 = expected wk 1wk 3wk 6wk 8 NYG −0.37 SEA −1.74
SEA pass offense vs NYG pass defense
SEA pass offense NYG pass defense (allowed)
−0.5 −0.3 0 +0.3 +0.5 +0.8 +1.0 +1.3 0 = expected wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6wk 7wk 8 SEA +0.70 NYG −0.22 −0.5 −0.3 0 +0.3 +0.5 +0.8 +1.0 +1.3 0 = expected wk 1wk 3wk 6wk 8 SEA +0.70 NYG −0.22
NYG rush offense vs SEA rush defense
NYG rush offense SEA rush defense (allowed)
−1.3 −1.0 −0.8 −0.5 −0.3 0 +0.3 0 = expected wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6wk 7wk 8 NYG −0.18 SEA −1.02 −1.3 −1.0 −0.8 −0.5 −0.3 0 +0.3 0 = expected wk 1wk 3wk 6wk 8 NYG −0.18 SEA −1.02
SEA rush offense vs NYG rush defense
SEA rush offense NYG rush defense (allowed)
−0.3 0 +0.3 +0.5 +0.8 +1.0 0 = expected wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6wk 7wk 8 SEA −0.03 NYG +0.66 −0.3 0 +0.3 +0.5 +0.8 +1.0 0 = expected wk 1wk 3wk 6wk 8 SEA −0.03 NYG +0.66
CAP win pct · 2026

How each team got here

CAP win pct entering each week. Higher is better; the league average is 0.50.

−0.25 0.00 0.25 0.50 avg 0.75 1.00 1.25 wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6wk 7wk 8 NYG 0.30 SEA 0.86 −0.25 0.00 0.25 0.50 avg 0.75 1.00 1.25 wk 1wk 3wk 6wk 8 NYG 0.30 SEA 0.86
2026 results

Results so far

Each team's games before this one, with ESF's pre-game win probability for the team.

NYG New York Giants

WeekOpponentResultESF win prob
pre-game, this team
1 vs DAL Won 35%
2 @ LA Lost 24%
3 vs TEN Won 59%
4 vs ARI Won 60%
5 @ WAS Tie 51%
6 vs NO Lost 56%
7 @ HOU Won 27%

SEA Seattle Seahawks

WeekOpponentResultESF win prob
pre-game, this team
1 vs NE Won 67%
2 @ ARI Won 81%
3 @ WAS Lost 81%
4 vs LAC Won 74%
5 vs SF Lost 56%
6 @ DEN Lost 40%
7 vs KC Won 58%
Week 14

Other games this week

Home team's chance to win before kickoff. Higher means the home team is more likely to win.

Dots: ESF model home win probability.

How to read this page

CAP win pct. A fading average of game scores with a half-life of 7 of the team's own games. A win scores 1 plus the opponent's win pct; a loss scores the opponent's win pct minus 1. Last season carries in. League average is 0.50; higher is better.

CAP yards per attempt. Yards per play relative to what the down, distance, field position and the specific opponent would predict. Offense: higher is better. Defense (yards allowed): lower is better.

Box score yards per attempt. Yards divided by attempts, counted the way an official box score counts them: rushing includes scrambles and kneel-downs; passing is gross yards per pass attempt, sacks excluded.

ESF win probability. A logistic regression on both teams' pre-game CAP win pct, with an intercept for home field.