∅ Empty Set Football
Week 14 · 2026 regular season

Denver Broncos at New York Jets

Sun, Dec 13, 10:00 AM PT

Win probability
ESF
(win probability)
DEN 82%
18% NYJ

No betting line yet. Lines appear once books post them.

Unit matchups · entering week 14

Where each side has the edge

Each offense against the defense it faces, in CAP yards per attempt. Offense: higher is better. Defense (yards allowed): lower is better.

Pass: DEN offense vs NYJ defense
−0.7327th
box score 6.0 · 28th
Edge
NYJ
+0.2621st
box score 7.0 allowed · 14th
Rush: DEN offense vs NYJ defense
−0.1321st
box score 3.8 · 26th
Edge
NYJ
−0.0614th
box score 4.0 allowed · 14th
Pass: NYJ offense vs DEN defense
−0.2621st
box score 8.0 · 5th
Edge
DEN
−0.793rd
box score 6.5 allowed · 8th
Rush: NYJ offense vs DEN defense
0.0016th
box score 4.1 · 19th
Edge
DEN
−0.1413th
box score 4.5 allowed · 23rd

CAP yards per attempt: yards per play relative to what the down, distance, field position and the specific opponent would predict; offense positive is good, defense (allowed) negative is good. Box score: yards per attempt as an official box score counts them, entering week 14.

CAP yards per attempt · 2026

How each matchup got here

Each unit's CAP yards per attempt entering each week. Offense: higher is better. Defense (yards allowed): lower is better. 0 is what the situation and opponent would predict.

DEN pass offense vs NYJ pass defense
DEN pass offense NYJ pass defense (allowed)
−1.0 −0.8 −0.5 −0.3 0 +0.3 +0.5 +0.8 0 = expected wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6wk 7wk 8 DEN −0.81 NYJ +0.02 −1.0 −0.8 −0.5 −0.3 0 +0.3 +0.5 +0.8 0 = expected wk 1wk 3wk 6wk 8 DEN −0.81 NYJ +0.02
NYJ pass offense vs DEN pass defense
NYJ pass offense DEN pass defense (allowed)
−1.8 −1.5 −1.3 −1.0 −0.8 −0.5 −0.3 0 +0.3 0 = expected wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6wk 7wk 8 NYJ −0.48 DEN −0.99 −1.8 −1.5 −1.3 −1.0 −0.8 −0.5 −0.3 0 +0.3 0 = expected wk 1wk 3wk 6wk 8 NYJ −0.48 DEN −0.99
DEN rush offense vs NYJ rush defense
DEN rush offense NYJ rush defense (allowed)
−0.5 −0.3 0 +0.3 0 = expected wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6wk 7wk 8 DEN −0.19 NYJ −0.14 −0.5 −0.3 0 +0.3 0 = expected wk 1wk 3wk 6wk 8 DEN −0.19 NYJ −0.14
NYJ rush offense vs DEN rush defense
NYJ rush offense DEN rush defense (allowed)
−0.8 −0.5 −0.3 0 +0.3 0 = expected wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6wk 7wk 8 NYJ −0.20 DEN −0.04 −0.8 −0.5 −0.3 0 +0.3 0 = expected wk 1wk 3wk 6wk 8 NYJ −0.20 DEN −0.04
CAP win pct · 2026

How each team got here

CAP win pct entering each week. Higher is better; the league average is 0.50.

−0.25 0.00 0.25 0.50 avg 0.75 1.00 1.25 wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6wk 7wk 8 DEN 1.02 NYJ −0.01 −0.25 0.00 0.25 0.50 avg 0.75 1.00 1.25 wk 1wk 3wk 6wk 8 DEN 1.02 NYJ −0.01
2026 results

Results so far

Each team's games before this one, with ESF's pre-game win probability for the team.

DEN Denver Broncos

WeekOpponentResultESF win prob
pre-game, this team
1 @ KC Lost 66%
2 vs JAX Won 56%
3 vs LA Won 65%
4 @ SF Lost 40%
5 @ LAC Won 61%
6 vs SEA Won 60%
7 @ ARI Won 77%
8 vs KC Won 70%

NYJ New York Jets

WeekOpponentResultESF win prob
pre-game, this team
1 @ TEN Won 46%
2 vs GB Lost 38%
3 @ DET Lost 27%
4 @ CHI Lost 19%
5 vs CLE Won 37%
6 @ NE Lost 19%
7 vs MIA Lost 51%
8 vs LV Lost 52%
Week 14

Other games this week

Home team's chance to win before kickoff. Higher means the home team is more likely to win.

Dots: ESF model home win probability.

How to read this page

CAP win pct. A fading average of game scores with a half-life of 7 of the team's own games. A win scores 1 plus the opponent's win pct; a loss scores the opponent's win pct minus 1. Last season carries in. League average is 0.50; higher is better.

CAP yards per attempt. Yards per play relative to what the down, distance, field position and the specific opponent would predict. Offense: higher is better. Defense (yards allowed): lower is better.

Box score yards per attempt. Yards divided by attempts, counted the way an official box score counts them: rushing includes scrambles and kneel-downs; passing is gross yards per pass attempt, sacks excluded.

ESF win probability. A logistic regression on both teams' pre-game CAP win pct, with an intercept for home field.