∅ Empty Set Football
Week 17 · 2026 regular season

New Orleans Saints at Atlanta Falcons

Sun, Jan 3, 10:00 AM PT

Win probability
ESF
(win probability)
NO 40%
60% ATL

No betting line yet. Lines appear once books post them.

Unit matchups · entering week 17

Where each side has the edge

Each offense against the defense it faces, in CAP yards per attempt. Offense: higher is better. Defense (yards allowed): lower is better.

Pass: NO offense vs ATL defense
−0.5224th
box score 6.3 · 26th
Edge
ATL
−0.428th
box score 6.6 allowed · 12th
Rush: NO offense vs ATL defense
−0.9632nd
box score 3.5 · 30th
Edge
ATL
+0.3326th
box score 4.3 allowed · 21st
Pass: ATL offense vs NO defense
−0.1919th
box score 7.1 · 17th
Edge
ATL
+0.6325th
box score 7.6 allowed · 25th
Rush: ATL offense vs NO defense
+0.478th
box score 4.6 · 9th
Edge
ATL
+0.2724th
box score 4.8 allowed · 26th

CAP yards per attempt: yards per play relative to what the down, distance, field position and the specific opponent would predict; offense positive is good, defense (allowed) negative is good. Box score: yards per attempt as an official box score counts them, entering week 17.

CAP yards per attempt · 2026

How each matchup got here

Each unit's CAP yards per attempt entering each week. Offense: higher is better. Defense (yards allowed): lower is better. 0 is what the situation and opponent would predict.

NO pass offense vs ATL pass defense
NO pass offense ATL pass defense (allowed)
−0.8 −0.5 −0.3 0 +0.3 0 = expected wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6wk 7wk 8 NO −0.52 ATL −0.38 −0.8 −0.5 −0.3 0 +0.3 0 = expected wk 1wk 3wk 6wk 8 NO −0.52 ATL −0.38
ATL pass offense vs NO pass defense
ATL pass offense NO pass defense (allowed)
−0.8 −0.5 −0.3 0 +0.3 +0.5 +0.8 0 = expected wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6wk 7wk 8 ATL −0.05 NO +0.63 −0.8 −0.5 −0.3 0 +0.3 +0.5 +0.8 0 = expected wk 1wk 3wk 6wk 8 ATL −0.05 NO +0.63
NO rush offense vs ATL rush defense
NO rush offense ATL rush defense (allowed)
−1.3 −1.0 −0.8 −0.5 −0.3 0 +0.3 +0.5 0 = expected wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6wk 7wk 8 NO −0.96 ATL +0.06 −1.3 −1.0 −0.8 −0.5 −0.3 0 +0.3 +0.5 0 = expected wk 1wk 3wk 6wk 8 NO −0.96 ATL +0.06
ATL rush offense vs NO rush defense
ATL rush offense NO rush defense (allowed)
−0.3 0 +0.3 +0.5 +0.8 +1.0 0 = expected wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6wk 7wk 8 ATL +0.61 NO +0.27 −0.3 0 +0.3 +0.5 +0.8 +1.0 0 = expected wk 1wk 3wk 6wk 8 ATL +0.61 NO +0.27
CAP win pct · 2026

How each team got here

CAP win pct entering each week. Higher is better; the league average is 0.50.

0.00 0.25 0.50 avg 0.75 wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6wk 7wk 8 NO 0.26 ATL 0.48 0.00 0.25 0.50 avg 0.75 wk 1wk 3wk 6wk 8 NO 0.26 ATL 0.48
2026 results

Results so far

Each team's games before this one, with ESF's pre-game win probability for the team.

NO New Orleans Saints

WeekOpponentResultESF win prob
pre-game, this team
1 @ DET Lost 39%
2 @ BAL Won 29%
3 vs LV Lost 68%
4 vs ATL Lost 53%
5 vs MIN Lost 31%
6 @ NYG Won 44%
7 vs PIT Lost 42%

ATL Atlanta Falcons

WeekOpponentResultESF win prob
pre-game, this team
1 @ PIT Lost 38%
2 vs CAR Lost 58%
3 @ GB Won 33%
4 @ NO Won 47%
5 vs BAL Lost 48%
6 vs CHI Lost 46%
7 vs SF Won 28%
8 @ TB Lost 55%
Week 17

Other games this week

Home team's chance to win before kickoff. Higher means the home team is more likely to win.

Dots: ESF model home win probability.

How to read this page

CAP win pct. A fading average of game scores with a half-life of 7 of the team's own games. A win scores 1 plus the opponent's win pct; a loss scores the opponent's win pct minus 1. Last season carries in. League average is 0.50; higher is better.

CAP yards per attempt. Yards per play relative to what the down, distance, field position and the specific opponent would predict. Offense: higher is better. Defense (yards allowed): lower is better.

Box score yards per attempt. Yards divided by attempts, counted the way an official box score counts them: rushing includes scrambles and kneel-downs; passing is gross yards per pass attempt, sacks excluded.

ESF win probability. A logistic regression on both teams' pre-game CAP win pct, with an intercept for home field.