∅ Empty Set Football
Week 13 · 2026 regular season

Buffalo Bills at New England Patriots

Sun, Dec 6, 1:25 PM PT

Win probability
ESF
(win probability)
BUF 50%
50% NE

No betting line yet. Lines appear once books post them.

Unit matchups · entering week 13

Where each side has the edge

Each offense against the defense it faces, in CAP yards per attempt. Offense: higher is better. Defense (yards allowed): lower is better.

Pass: BUF offense vs NE defense
+1.352nd
box score 8.7 · 1st
Edge
BUF
−0.0916th
box score 7.3 allowed · 19th
Rush: BUF offense vs NE defense
+0.605th
box score 4.8 · 4th
Edge
BUF
−0.358th
box score 3.8 allowed · 10th
Pass: NE offense vs BUF defense
+1.401st
box score 8.5 · 2nd
Edge
NE
−0.615th
box score 7.0 allowed · 15th
Rush: NE offense vs BUF defense
−0.1723rd
box score 4.1 · 18th
Edge
BUF
+0.1117th
box score 3.9 allowed · 11th

CAP yards per attempt: yards per play relative to what the down, distance, field position and the specific opponent would predict; offense positive is good, defense (allowed) negative is good. Box score: yards per attempt as an official box score counts them, entering week 13.

CAP yards per attempt · 2026

How each matchup got here

Each unit's CAP yards per attempt entering each week. Offense: higher is better. Defense (yards allowed): lower is better. 0 is what the situation and opponent would predict.

BUF pass offense vs NE pass defense
BUF pass offense NE pass defense (allowed)
−1.0 −0.5 0 +0.5 +1.0 +1.5 +2.0 0 = expected wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6wk 7wk 8 BUF +1.40 NE −0.06 −1.0 −0.5 0 +0.5 +1.0 +1.5 +2.0 0 = expected wk 1wk 3wk 6wk 8 BUF +1.40 NE −0.06
NE pass offense vs BUF pass defense
NE pass offense BUF pass defense (allowed)
−0.8 −0.5 −0.3 0 +0.3 +0.5 +0.8 +1.0 +1.3 +1.5 0 = expected wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6wk 7wk 8 NE +1.36 BUF −0.29 −0.8 −0.5 −0.3 0 +0.3 +0.5 +0.8 +1.0 +1.3 +1.5 0 = expected wk 1wk 3wk 6wk 8 NE +1.36 BUF −0.29
BUF rush offense vs NE rush defense
BUF rush offense NE rush defense (allowed)
−0.5 −0.3 0 +0.3 +0.5 +0.8 +1.0 0 = expected wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6wk 7wk 8 BUF +0.63 NE −0.21 −0.5 −0.3 0 +0.3 +0.5 +0.8 +1.0 0 = expected wk 1wk 3wk 6wk 8 BUF +0.63 NE −0.21
NE rush offense vs BUF rush defense
NE rush offense BUF rush defense (allowed)
−0.5 −0.3 0 +0.3 +0.5 +0.8 +1.0 0 = expected wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6wk 7wk 8 NE −0.23 BUF +0.17 −0.5 −0.3 0 +0.3 +0.5 +0.8 +1.0 0 = expected wk 1wk 3wk 6wk 8 NE −0.23 BUF +0.17
CAP win pct · 2026

How each team got here

CAP win pct entering each week. Higher is better; the league average is 0.50.

0.25 0.50 avg 0.75 1.00 1.25 wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6wk 7wk 8 BUF 1.00 NE 0.77 0.25 0.50 avg 0.75 1.00 1.25 wk 1wk 3wk 6wk 8 BUF 1.00 NE 0.77
2026 results

Results so far

Each team's games before this one, with ESF's pre-game win probability for the team.

BUF Buffalo Bills

WeekOpponentResultESF win prob
pre-game, this team
1 @ HOU Won 38%
2 vs DET Won 69%
3 vs LAC Won 74%
4 vs NE Lost 70%
5 @ LA Won 49%
6 @ LV Won 74%
8 vs BAL Won 73%

NE New England Patriots

WeekOpponentResultESF win prob
pre-game, this team
1 @ SEA Lost 33%
2 vs PIT Won 60%
3 @ JAX Lost 42%
4 @ BUF Won 30%
5 vs LV Won 78%
6 vs NYJ Won 81%
7 @ CHI Lost 47%
8 @ MIA Won 64%
Week 13

Other games this week

Home team's chance to win before kickoff. Higher means the home team is more likely to win.

Dots: ESF model home win probability.

How to read this page

CAP win pct. A fading average of game scores with a half-life of 7 of the team's own games. A win scores 1 plus the opponent's win pct; a loss scores the opponent's win pct minus 1. Last season carries in. League average is 0.50; higher is better.

CAP yards per attempt. Yards per play relative to what the down, distance, field position and the specific opponent would predict. Offense: higher is better. Defense (yards allowed): lower is better.

Box score yards per attempt. Yards divided by attempts, counted the way an official box score counts them: rushing includes scrambles and kneel-downs; passing is gross yards per pass attempt, sacks excluded.

ESF win probability. A logistic regression on both teams' pre-game CAP win pct, with an intercept for home field.