∅ Empty Set Football
Week 12 · 2026 regular season

Kansas City Chiefs at Buffalo Bills

Thu, Nov 26, 5:20 PM PT

Win probability
ESF
(win probability)
KC 26%
74% BUF

No betting line yet. Lines appear once books post them.

Unit matchups · entering week 12

Where each side has the edge

Each offense against the defense it faces, in CAP yards per attempt. Offense: higher is better. Defense (yards allowed): lower is better.

Pass: KC offense vs BUF defense
+0.378th
box score 7.7 · 9th
Edge
BUF
−0.615th
box score 7.0 allowed · 15th
Rush: KC offense vs BUF defense
+0.497th
box score 5.1 · 1st
Edge
KC
+0.1117th
box score 3.9 allowed · 11th
Pass: BUF offense vs KC defense
+1.352nd
box score 8.7 · 1st
Edge
BUF
−0.1514th
box score 6.6 allowed · 10th
Rush: BUF offense vs KC defense
+0.605th
box score 4.8 · 4th
Edge
KC
−0.662nd
box score 3.5 allowed · 4th

CAP yards per attempt: yards per play relative to what the down, distance, field position and the specific opponent would predict; offense positive is good, defense (allowed) negative is good. Box score: yards per attempt as an official box score counts them, entering week 12.

CAP yards per attempt · 2026

How each matchup got here

Each unit's CAP yards per attempt entering each week. Offense: higher is better. Defense (yards allowed): lower is better. 0 is what the situation and opponent would predict.

KC pass offense vs BUF pass defense
KC pass offense BUF pass defense (allowed)
−0.8 −0.5 −0.3 0 +0.3 +0.5 0 = expected wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6wk 7wk 8 KC +0.12 BUF −0.29 −0.8 −0.5 −0.3 0 +0.3 +0.5 0 = expected wk 1wk 3wk 6wk 8 KC +0.12 BUF −0.29
BUF pass offense vs KC pass defense
BUF pass offense KC pass defense (allowed)
−0.8 −0.5 −0.3 0 +0.3 +0.5 +0.8 +1.0 +1.3 +1.5 +1.8 0 = expected wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6wk 7wk 8 BUF +1.40 KC −0.28 −0.8 −0.5 −0.3 0 +0.3 +0.5 +0.8 +1.0 +1.3 +1.5 +1.8 0 = expected wk 1wk 3wk 6wk 8 BUF +1.40 KC −0.28
KC rush offense vs BUF rush defense
KC rush offense BUF rush defense (allowed)
−0.5 −0.3 0 +0.3 +0.5 +0.8 +1.0 0 = expected wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6wk 7wk 8 KC +0.60 BUF +0.17 −0.5 −0.3 0 +0.3 +0.5 +0.8 +1.0 0 = expected wk 1wk 3wk 6wk 8 KC +0.60 BUF +0.17
BUF rush offense vs KC rush defense
BUF rush offense KC rush defense (allowed)
−1.0 −0.8 −0.5 −0.3 0 +0.3 +0.5 +0.8 +1.0 0 = expected wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6wk 7wk 8 BUF +0.63 KC −0.73 −1.0 −0.8 −0.5 −0.3 0 +0.3 +0.5 +0.8 +1.0 0 = expected wk 1wk 3wk 6wk 8 BUF +0.63 KC −0.73
CAP win pct · 2026

How each team got here

CAP win pct entering each week. Higher is better; the league average is 0.50.

0.25 0.50 avg 0.75 1.00 1.25 wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6wk 7wk 8 KC 0.67 BUF 1.00 0.25 0.50 avg 0.75 1.00 1.25 wk 1wk 3wk 6wk 8 KC 0.67 BUF 1.00
2026 results

Results so far

Each team's games before this one, with ESF's pre-game win probability for the team.

KC Kansas City Chiefs

WeekOpponentResultESF win prob
pre-game, this team
1 vs DEN Won 34%
2 vs IND Won 66%
3 @ MIA Won 54%
4 @ LV Won 61%
6 vs LAC Won 70%
7 @ SEA Lost 42%
8 @ DEN Lost 30%

BUF Buffalo Bills

WeekOpponentResultESF win prob
pre-game, this team
1 @ HOU Won 38%
2 vs DET Won 69%
3 vs LAC Won 74%
4 vs NE Lost 70%
5 @ LA Won 49%
6 @ LV Won 74%
8 vs BAL Won 73%
Week 12

Other games this week

Home team's chance to win before kickoff. Higher means the home team is more likely to win.

Dots: ESF model home win probability.

How to read this page

CAP win pct. A fading average of game scores with a half-life of 7 of the team's own games. A win scores 1 plus the opponent's win pct; a loss scores the opponent's win pct minus 1. Last season carries in. League average is 0.50; higher is better.

CAP yards per attempt. Yards per play relative to what the down, distance, field position and the specific opponent would predict. Offense: higher is better. Defense (yards allowed): lower is better.

Box score yards per attempt. Yards divided by attempts, counted the way an official box score counts them: rushing includes scrambles and kneel-downs; passing is gross yards per pass attempt, sacks excluded.

ESF win probability. A logistic regression on both teams' pre-game CAP win pct, with an intercept for home field.