∅ Empty Set Football
Week 10 · 2026 regular season

New England Patriots at Detroit Lions

Sun, Nov 15, 6:30 AM PT

Win probability
ESF
(win probability)
NE 45%
55% DET

No betting line yet. Lines appear once books post them.

Unit matchups · entering week 10

Where each side has the edge

Each offense against the defense it faces, in CAP yards per attempt. Offense: higher is better. Defense (yards allowed): lower is better.

Pass: NE offense vs DET defense
+1.401st
box score 8.5 · 2nd
Edge
NE
+0.2220th
box score 7.3 allowed · 18th
Rush: NE offense vs DET defense
−0.1723rd
box score 4.1 · 18th
Edge
DET
+0.1219th
box score 4.1 allowed · 17th
Pass: DET offense vs NE defense
+1.323rd
box score 7.9 · 7th
Edge
DET
−0.0916th
box score 7.3 allowed · 19th
Rush: DET offense vs NE defense
+0.614th
box score 4.6 · 10th
Edge
DET
−0.358th
box score 3.8 allowed · 10th

CAP yards per attempt: yards per play relative to what the down, distance, field position and the specific opponent would predict; offense positive is good, defense (allowed) negative is good. Box score: yards per attempt as an official box score counts them, entering week 10.

CAP yards per attempt · 2026

How each matchup got here

Each unit's CAP yards per attempt entering each week. Offense: higher is better. Defense (yards allowed): lower is better. 0 is what the situation and opponent would predict.

NE pass offense vs DET pass defense
NE pass offense DET pass defense (allowed)
−0.3 0 +0.3 +0.5 +0.8 +1.0 +1.3 +1.5 0 = expected wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6wk 7wk 8 NE +1.36 DET +0.15 −0.3 0 +0.3 +0.5 +0.8 +1.0 +1.3 +1.5 0 = expected wk 1wk 3wk 6wk 8 NE +1.36 DET +0.15
DET pass offense vs NE pass defense
DET pass offense NE pass defense (allowed)
−1.0 −0.8 −0.5 −0.3 0 +0.3 +0.5 +0.8 +1.0 +1.3 +1.5 0 = expected wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6wk 7wk 8 DET +1.32 NE −0.06 −1.0 −0.8 −0.5 −0.3 0 +0.3 +0.5 +0.8 +1.0 +1.3 +1.5 0 = expected wk 1wk 3wk 6wk 8 DET +1.32 NE −0.06
NE rush offense vs DET rush defense
NE rush offense DET rush defense (allowed)
−0.5 −0.3 0 +0.3 +0.5 +0.8 0 = expected wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6wk 7wk 8 NE −0.23 DET +0.17 −0.5 −0.3 0 +0.3 +0.5 +0.8 0 = expected wk 1wk 3wk 6wk 8 NE −0.23 DET +0.17
DET rush offense vs NE rush defense
DET rush offense NE rush defense (allowed)
−0.5 −0.3 0 +0.3 +0.5 +0.8 0 = expected wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6wk 7wk 8 DET +0.36 NE −0.21 −0.5 −0.3 0 +0.3 +0.5 +0.8 0 = expected wk 1wk 3wk 6wk 8 DET +0.36 NE −0.21
CAP win pct · 2026

How each team got here

CAP win pct entering each week. Higher is better; the league average is 0.50.

0.25 0.50 avg 0.75 1.00 wk 1wk 2wk 3wk 4wk 5wk 6wk 7wk 8 NE 0.77 DET 0.65 0.25 0.50 avg 0.75 1.00 wk 1wk 3wk 6wk 8 NE 0.77 DET 0.65
2026 results

Results so far

Each team's games before this one, with ESF's pre-game win probability for the team.

NE New England Patriots

WeekOpponentResultESF win prob
pre-game, this team
1 @ SEA Lost 33%
2 vs PIT Won 60%
3 @ JAX Lost 42%
4 @ BUF Won 30%
5 vs LV Won 78%
6 vs NYJ Won 81%
7 @ CHI Lost 47%
8 @ MIA Won 64%

DET Detroit Lions

WeekOpponentResultESF win prob
pre-game, this team
1 vs NO Won 61%
2 @ BUF Lost 31%
3 vs NYJ Won 73%
4 @ CAR Lost 55%
5 @ ARI Won 66%
7 vs GB Won 50%
8 vs MIN Won 44%
Week 10

Other games this week

Home team's chance to win before kickoff. Higher means the home team is more likely to win.

Dots: ESF model home win probability.

How to read this page

CAP win pct. A fading average of game scores with a half-life of 7 of the team's own games. A win scores 1 plus the opponent's win pct; a loss scores the opponent's win pct minus 1. Last season carries in. League average is 0.50; higher is better.

CAP yards per attempt. Yards per play relative to what the down, distance, field position and the specific opponent would predict. Offense: higher is better. Defense (yards allowed): lower is better.

Box score yards per attempt. Yards divided by attempts, counted the way an official box score counts them: rushing includes scrambles and kneel-downs; passing is gross yards per pass attempt, sacks excluded.

ESF win probability. A logistic regression on both teams' pre-game CAP win pct, with an intercept for home field.